A lot can change in 8 days. On Saturday April 29th the Toronto Maple Leafs finally slayed the 19-year-old 1stround curse by defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning in 6 games. Fast forward just over a week and the Maple Leafs find themselves in a strangle hold down 0-3 to the Florida Panthers. There are a plethora of reasons on why Leafs Nation believes they’re in this situation ranging from the resurgence of Sergei Bobrovsky, the disappearance of the core 4 in the second round and the biased officiating/supplementary discipline from the league. So, how did we get here?
Game 1:
Toronto started off the first game of round 2 flying, and they looked like the better team hands down through the beginning of the game with 2 dominant power plays where the completely dictated the play and pace. A Nick Cousins goal mid-way through the first took the wind out of Toronto’s sails. Followed by a deflection off Matthew Knies put the Leafs down 2-0 midway through the 2nd frame. Knies would score his first goal of the playoffs along with a Michael Bunting marker to draw the game even at 2 a piece. A bad pinch sent Verhaeghe on a breakaway late in the period gave the Panthers a lead they would not relinquish. Brandon Montour put one more past Sammy for a 4-2 final. The Leafs peppered Bobrovsky throughout this game along with a few unlucky shots off the post gave Florida the 1-0 series lead.
Game 2:
Once again Toronto came out with the pedal down early with Kerfoot and O’Reilly goals putting the Buds up to an early 2-0 lead. Florida did chip away and make the game 2-1 going into the 1st intermission. The start of the second period was disastrous, I think it’s fair to say that in game 2 overall Toronto was the better team. But a bad 47 seconds where Nylander and then Matthews/Marner all had horrendous turnovers near their own blue line which immediately were put into the back of their net. Nylander did go on to elevate his play from that point on, but a combination of big saves by Bobrovsky and ill-timed posts hit left Toronto trailing until the final whistles. These first 2 games were statistically Bobrovsky’s best 2 game stretch of hockey since joint Florida 4 years ago.
An underlying storyline through this contest was the completely legal and un-suspend able play of Sam Bennett. Bennett took an intentional cross check to the chin/neck of Michael Bunting in front of the net, then followed that up with a downward cross check onto Bunting’s Lower back (2:00 Cross Checking) (Far more dangerous and intentional than the Matthews Cross Check on Dahlin which was a 2-game suspension, but Bennett gets the $5,000 fine). Later in the game Bennett would sweep the feet out from 20-year-old Matthew Knies and drive his head into the ice removing the impactful rookie from the series with a concussion. No suspension, No Penalty & No fine. I personally hate to be a fan who complains about officiating, even when I do feel it happens against my team, but George Parros and the department of player safety have time and again shown a bias against the Leafs every chance they get. I feel Parros is unfit in the position he is in and constantly disgraces the league with his decision making due to some weird personal vendetta against the team that accidentally ended his career (Orr v Parros fight https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YL6Z31dVdcA). George, you rarely were able to positively impact a game when you were on the ice, please stop trying to do it from the press box.
Game 3:
This felt like a must win game, Toronto needed to take 2 on the road to head home in a best of 3 series. Toronto received an early depth goal from recently scratched Sam Lafferty to give the Leafs an early 1-0 lead. An accidental Verhaeghe collision after a Luke Schenn trip saw Leafs star goalie Ilya Samsonov leave the game with an injury. Joseph Will got his second taste of playoff hockey in relief of Sammy only to have an Anthony Duclair breakaway with 1 minute remaining on the power play knot the game at 1 a piece. 7th defenseman Erik Gustafsson gave the Maple Leafs the lead back after an own goal deflection by Marc Staal. The Leafs again forfeited the lead with a Radko Gudas deflection off Verhaeghe for a tie game. The Leafs were outplayed for the remainder of the period and overtime leading to the Sam Reinhart dagger that gave the Cats a 3-0 series lead.
Other than the disappointing result, a lot of leaf fans were salivating at the tease of Wayne Simmonds making his 2023 playoff debut and responding to the Bennett antics, Wayne was a late warmup healthy scratch so that dream ended before it began. Leafs Nation was “embarrassed” by a lack of a response to Bennett, and while I’m not defending them doing nothing, I wonder if the quiet game was a by-product of having Wes McAuley as one of the officials in the game. Maybe Keefe delivered a message to “leave it alone” as Wes would be keener to penalize or eject Leafs players for this premeditated behavior and Keefe thought it would’ve taken away his clubs’ chances to win the game all together. That being said the penalty count was 2-0 in favor of Florida and it’s hard to believe that the Panthers (2nd in the regular season for penalties taken with 388, behind only Ottawa who took 389) committed 0 infractions through 3 periods and overtime.
The Mountain in Front of Us
It may be an unpopular opinion to say this as this series feels so far out of grasp at the moment, but the Leafs have played well enough that this series could have been 2-1 for either team. Credit to the Florida Panthers who after knocking off the record setting Bruins, continued to roll that momentum into the 2nd round and have given themselves a comfortable 3-0 series lead. Only four teams in NHL history have comeback from a 3-0 series deficit to advance to the next round (1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, 1975 New York Islanders, 2010 Philadelphia Flyers & 2014 Los Angeles Kings). So, with the table set for a choke that would discredit the Leafs round 1 victory or a comeback that has only happened 4 times in the league’s 106-year history, the Leafs are officially fighting for their playoff lives. In the Matthews era, the Leafs have a had a very impressive record when it comes to games where they’re the only team facing elimination 3-0 and usually had their trouble closing out games where they could eliminate their opponent. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team flips a switch and holds onto this series for dear life to force a game 7.
If Toronto has any hope to pull of this miracle, it needs to be done by committee. Toronto has had their depth chip into the minimal offence they’ve generated through 3 games, but some key depth players from the regular season/first round have been quite underwhelming against the Panthers; O’Reilly, Accari, McCabe, Giordano, Brodie & Jarnkrok being the most notable in having their play drop off in round 2 when we tend to expect more out of these individuals. I will say right now that the play from Knies preinjury, Schenn and Rielly have greatly exceeded the expectations set on them prior to the playoffs. The elephant in the room is the complete non-factor the “Core 4” have been to different extents throughout these playoffs; I’m choosing to address them in the order of least disappointing to most for this post season.
4. John Tavares - This player has been the best of the core 4 through the 9 playoff games this year. While John isn’t driving the play consistently and putting up points in mass, he has shown up for the team in big moments to got them into the 2nd round (Game 6 OT winner). Also, John’s play (turnovers and bad decision making) has negatively impacted the Leafs the least. Tavares definitely can/needs to step his game up if he wants to lead his club to the eastern conference finals, but he’s got the smallest step to take of the core 4.
3. Auston Matthews - This one was a toss-up between Auston and the 2nd most disappointing member of the core 4. I chose to give the edge to Matthews solely off the effort and impact he had against the Lighting. Auston had 2 big goals against Tampa in game 4 which sparked the comeback to eventually win that game in overtime and then scored another big goal in game 6 to help the Leafs advance. 34 has been a non-factor offensively in this series, failing to produce and drive the play. His defensive game has been good despite being one of the two costly turnovers in that horrible 47 seconds in game 2. Matthews had a down year, but that began to look up leading into the post season, if he has any aspirations of being a top 3 player in the league, these are the moments he needs to show up. Matthews has all the talent, ability, and drive to elevate his game and drag the Leafs back into this series, the question is will he.
2. William Nylander - There was a razor thin margin for error when it came to who was 2nd and 3rd most disappointing through these playoffs between Willie and Auston. Auston got the edge because the league consensus is goal scoring is valued over all else, despite Willie having assists on both of Matthews big goals in game 4 against Tampa. Willie has arguably been the Leafs most consistent playoff producer over his tenure with the Leafs, pair that with Willie setting a career high this year and notching 40 goals I had extremely high expectations for him against Tampa. He was not bad against the Bolts by any means, but he was just okay. Being okay isn’t bad when your team goes on to win the series, but it was an underwhelming first round for Willie. In round 2 Willie has undoubtedly been the best of the core 4 at driving play, but still hasn’t been able to produce much offence against the Panthers despite his strong play. Willie looked off for game 1, especially when he claimed Marc Staal’s ankles and sent him sliding into the corner giving Nylander a clear lane to drive the net. Willie looked confused and made a standing still pass that didn’t generate anything and that play felt like the turning point for game 1. Willie was part of the other awful 47 seconds where he turned the puck over to Sasha Barkov who went on to score (In Willie’s defense, this is a shot you’d expect your goalie to stop). Willie has all the tools to steal this series for the Leafs, if he continues to drive the play like he has for this series, he is a prime candidate to break through and turn the momentum for the Leafs in game 4.
1. Mitch Marner - If you looked at Marner’s total points without watching the games you’d think he was driving the play every night. This is unfortunately not the case. Marner might be the most frustrating of the core 4 these playoffs, as he was having a career year and was one of the Leafs better and most consistent players all season. Add a Selke nomination to the mix and you’d think Mitch would be a slam dunk to be the difference maker for the Leafs. Marner has 12 points in 9 games in this year’s playoffs, but 6 of those points came in the first 2 games against Tampa. Marner has only managed to put up 2 assists since game 5 against the Lightning. Mitch put Matthews in an awkward spot in game 2 which should credit him with half of that costly turnover that cost the Leafs the game, but that’s not why Marner has been the most disappointing of the core 4. Mitch produced one of the most frustrating games I have ever watched in game 3; he was slow and careless with the puck; he was giving away possession out of fear either by a straight turnover or dumping the puck in without chasing it and failed to have any positive impact in one of the biggest games of the season. Marner played game 3 with the worst case of nerves I’ve ever seen. Marner NEEDS to wake up and embrace the physicality and chaos that is playoff hockey, that old time hockey phrase “Take a hit to make a play” has never been more needed in a player’s game after watching how Marner played in game 3. Simply put, Mitch Marner is a hometown kid who wants to win with his childhood team. But the style of game he’s brought these playoffs is just not good enough for a player of his caliber. I like to play devil’s advocate in most conversations about the Leafs as I do love the players we have and want them all to succeed, win and stay in Toronto. But Mitch’s performance in game 3 left me unable to defend this player any further, if this is how he performs in the “Big games”. Mitch, prove me wrong! Prove every fan and reporter saying you’re nothing but a regular season performer wrong. You are one of the most skilled and talented players in the NHL, and the team you grew up loving needs you in game 4 more than ever, it’s time to change the narrative Mitch.
What to BeLeaf In
The Leafs have a big mountain to climb if they want to extend their 2023 post season. On TSN Overdrive the panel was joined by Mr. Game 7 himself Justin Williams who was a part of the most recent 0-3 series deficit comeback with the LA Kings in 2014. On his radio hit he had this to say “You win 1 game and then being down 3-1 doesn’t look so bad. Then a little bit of pressure shifts on them, you battle out another game then its totally turned. The pressure was on you, now it’s all on them.” While the eastern conference finals may feel lightyears away now, 4 games stand between the Maple Leafs and history. Bryan O’Reilly (Father of Ryan O’Reilly) who is a motivational coach had this to say going into game 4 “There is a great feeling cheering for the Leafs that they will come back from this 3-game deficit and win the series. It just feels good to cheer for a team that can do the impossible.” These are just quotes, and in the grand scheme of things really mean nothing if the players don’t show up in game 4.
The ”I Cant’s”
I can’t ask you to let these players off the hook if our season ends this week.
I can’t tell you that the management and coaching staff will be back next year.
I can’t guarantee the Leafs play game 1 of next year with the same core of players.
I can’t promise you the Leafs comeback to win this series.
I can’t even promise they will win game 4.
But I can ask you to Be Leaf in this team one more time. It may be the last, but Leafs Nation, it’s all we can do.
Be Leaf in the comeback, Be Leaf in the players and Belief in the process.
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