MO-tivation to close out Round 1

I'm aware that for today’s blog, posting a summary of the first 4 games may be a bit of a waste as any Leaf fan committed enough to read this blog undoubtedly has watched all the games and experienced the highs and lows that went with them. So far through this series the Maple Leafs big players have been key factors in every victory. Matthews, Marner, Tavares, O'Reilly and Nylander have all shown up through the first 4 games and have made massive impacts to put the Leafs in their current position. Their times for glory and praise will come, but today we are looking at a player who has been a member of the Maple Leafs since the 1st season after the 2013 playoff loss to the Bruins and the impact he's made in the 2023 playoffs.  

Game 1

The Toronto Maple Leafs played their first real game in many fans eye as of April 18th in Game 1 of the Stanley cup playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Toronto started the postseason off with one of the worst performances in the Matthews era, allowing a goal 1 minute and 19 seconds into the game. This spiraled and the Lightning potted 2 more goals in the opening frame of the series. Starting the 2nd period down 3-0 was in no fans mind when the puck dropped, but that became the bleak reality. Toronto's power play started the foundation for a heroic comeback with 2 goals in quick succession from O'Reilly & Nylander drawing them back within 1. After playoff debutant Jake McCabe laid a bone crunching hit on Mike Eyssimont at the defensive blue line (that ultimately took him out of the following three games) he was pursued by Nick Paul who tracked McCabe down the ice slashing him looking to fight. Seconds later David Kampf was victim to a weak slashing call on Corey Perry putting Toronto on the penalty kill. Tampa scored on the man advantage putting the lead to 4-2 and ending the Leafs comeback effort. Tampa did put three more past Ilya Samsonov while Toronto's Calle Jarnkrok potted a goal in the 3^rd period but was too little, too late. The story line from game 1 was a combination of Wes McAuley's questionable refereeing and the fall out of Michael Bunting’s 5 minute major. During the game Michael Bunting threw a questionable hit against Tampa defenceman Erik Cernak. The debate on the hit's dirty-ness to bias of the officials had Leafs Nation split on if he deserved a suspension, the League decided the hit was worth 3 games. This game was disastrous for the buds putting them at an 0-1 series deficit. There were very few bright spots to take from the first contest as few Leafs played well. With the Goliath Lightning team in front of them, The Leafs needed a strong bounce back in game 2. With Toronto down a top 6 winger, they looked to inject rookie Matthew Knies into their lineup in an attempt to swing the momentum back into their favour. 

The Bunting Hit

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1648496226533535744?s=20

Game 2

Along with the roster change of adding Knies, the Leafs needed their stars to step up. In Game 2 we saw exactly that. Within the first 2 Minutes of puck drop Mitch Marner was able to draw a penalty and then proceed to score for the early 1-0 lead.  Captain John Tavares and William Nylander both put pucks past Vasilevskiy in the 1st to give Toronto the 3-0 lead heading into intermission. Along with 3 of Toronto’s “Big Four Forwards” notching goals in the first period, the Leafs longest tenured defenceman Morgan Rielly was the man leading the charge getting 3 primary assists in first period. Tampa got one back midway through the second when an uncovered Ian Cole walked in from the point to slip a loose puck past Sammy. Rielly put up his 4th primary assist shortly after Cole’s goal with a bank pass off Vasi’s pad to captain Johnny Toronto. The Leafs essentially dominated the remainder of the game having Tavares complete his hat trick, Marner getting his 2nd of the night and a hard-working crash the net 4th line goal by Zack Aston-Reese. Perry did manage to get the too little, too late goal for a 7-2 Leafs final and a 1-1 Series tie. Looking to highlight one player’s performance in this one is more difficult as the entire roster had a bounce back night, the easy and most appealing answer is to talk about JT and the first home playoff hat trick since Alexander Mogilny. But doing that just didn’t feel right. The player who I think deserves the love for swinging the series back into Toronto’s favour is Morgan Rielly. Mo was a major subject of controversy through this season, he missed a large portion of games due to a knee injury mid-season and when he returned, he did not look 100%. Fans questioned if he was still injured or if this was the player, they’re tied to for the next 8 years at 7.5 million dollars. The Leafs needed a push back in game 2 and Mo was a key factor in the Leafs gaining and maintaining the lead through the first half of the game. 

Rielly Assist 

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1649196708159447040?s=20

Game 3

 

With the series knotted at 1 game apiece it was time for the buds to travel to Amalie arena for their first road game of the series. Going into this game I was a big believer in “You just need to take 1 game in Tampa and you’re fine. Doesn’t matter if it’s game 3 or 4, but you need to be going back to Toronto even for game 5” The Leafs opened the scoring when rookie Matthew Knies dished off a slick feed to Noel Accari on a 3 on 2 rush. Tampa answered shortly after to make it 1-1 before Auston Matthews deflected home his first of the playoffs. Toronto was looking to take the 2-1 lead into intermission before a scramble in the crease led to Tampa trying the game 2 goals a piece late in the first period. Tampa then proceeded dominate the following 20 minutes, completely out playing Toronto. Despite a whole period of control by Tampa, the Leafs only found themselves down 3-2 in the game. Controversy found the Leafs again as both Rielly and Braydon Point were battling for position on route to a loose puck in the corner. As the two players bumped, Braydon Point lost an edge and went barreling into the corner boards at a high speed. Rielly was immediately grabbed by Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov and slammed to the ice as the melee ensued in the corner. This scrum led to the first fight in Auston Matthews’ NHL career where he was attacked by fellow former 60 goal scorer Steven Stamkos. (This was the first time in NHL history two 60 goal scorers have fought each other). Rielly was off to the Leafs dressing room for repairs for a suspected broken nose when he was assessed a 5-minute major and match penalty for his hit on Point. After Sheldon Keefe’s protest, the hit was reviewed and deemed clean as there was no intent for Mo to send Point into the boards and did his best to limit contact after Point had stumbled. With Rielly back in the game the Leafs got out of that exchange with the man advantage. Toronto spent the remainder of the game trailing the lighting until playoff juggernaut Ryan O’Reilly shoveled a loose puck past Vasilevskiy with 1 minute remaining in regulation. The Lighting spent most of the overtime period out playing the Leafs, but a strong performance from Samsonov had the Leafs holding on and looking to make it to double overtime. With a face off in the Tampa zone and under a minute remaining in overtime, O’Reilly wins a face off clean back to the Left point where Morgan Rielly sends a seeing eye shot past Knies and O’Reilly’s screens for the OT winner (first OT winner by a Leafs defenceman since Thomas Kaberle in 2003). The Leafs took game 3 against all odds thanks to a player who was almost wrongly ejected from the contest. 

The Point Rielly Collision

 

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1649948698086965249?s=20

 

Morgan Rielly OT Winner

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1649948698086965249?s=20

Game 4

 

With a 2-1 series league the Leafs went into game 4 looking to return to Toronto with a strangle hold on the series. The Lightning would be coming out in full force in this game looking to even the series. After getting another early power play, Rielly bobbled a puck at the offensive blueline that led to a trip on Brandon Hagel. This would be Hagel’s first career penalty shot, but thanks to a kick save from Sammy he will be 0 for 1 for the time being. The Lightning managed to put up a power play marker off a slick pass from Kucherov to Killorn in the blue paint (his first playoff goal in 29 games) giving the bolts an early 1-0 lead. Toronto looked to escape the period only down one, but a common theme of allowing goals against in the last 2 minutes of periods saw Milhail Sergachev rip a wrist shot past Samsonov for the 2-0 lead going into the first intermission. In the 2nd period a strong display of work rate off the puck saw the Leafs deadline big fish Ryan O’Reilly battle with four Lightning players before picking Kucherov’s pocket and sending the puck to the point where a Justin Holl shot was deflected past Vasi by fellow Ex-Blues player Noel Accari. Toronto was looking to draw the game even before a Victor Hedman shot deflected of Lightning Captain Steven Stamkos’ toe to restore the 2-goal lead. Tampa delivers the final blow of the period when Alex Killorn rifles a shot off the bar and in to beat Sammy for his second of the game. On intermission Brandon Hagel delivered a quote that aged like milk, “Pretty much doing the same thing, I’m not surprised the score is 4-1 going into the third period. I mean we thought last game we played good enough to win that game, knew we just had to step it up a little bit more and we did that and the result is kinda going our way”. The Lightning did something thing their first-round opponents are all too familiar with, they got complacent with their effort through 2 and didn’t show the “Killer Instinct” to put the game away. To start this 3rd period summary, I must remind everyone that Tampa had the worst lead in hockey 4-1 (A score line that has scarred Leaf fans for nearly 10 years). In shades of Leafs vs, the Bruins circa 2013, Auston Matthews potted his 2nd of the playoffs with a vintage Matthews shot just before the halfway mark of the final period. A little over 3 minutes later Auston struck again with a fly by tip on the man advantage making it 4-3. With 3:56 left in the period a John Tavares & Ryan O'Reilly screen took Vasilevskiy's vision away, letting a Morgan Rielly shot from the point beat him blocker side. #44 ties the game four, 4-4 with just under 4 minutes to go. Rielly once again shows up in a big way in an even bigger moment. Toronto was the team driving the momentum in OT this time as Tampa only had one notable scoring chance when a Steven Stamkos’ shot from the slot knocked Sammy's helmet off. Shortly after Sammy's big save the Leafs found themselves in the offensive zone with the game on William Nylander's stick before Mikhail Sergachev takes his feet out to draw the rare penalty in overtime. Unfortunately, the top power play unit was unable to end the game, which meant the new look second unit consisting of Giordano, Nylander, Jarnkrok, Knies and Kerfoot took the ice. After Kerfoot sends the puck back to the point, he skates himself into Vasi's line of sight. Giordano lets a wrist shot from the point go that is deflected past Vasilevskiy completing the comeback with a 5-4 overtime victory. Toronto takes a 3-1 series lead heading back home to Scotiabank Arena on Thursday, they now have three attempts to take down the 3-time defending Prince of Wales Trophy champions and advance to the second round for the first time in nearly 20 years. 

Hagel Interview

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1650703272523464706?s=20

 

#44 Ties it 4-4

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1650683184823128070?s=20

The 1st Round MVP (So Far)

 

Going into this year’s playoffs many members of Leafs nation were left scratching their heads as it appeared Morgan Rielly would be paired with the returning Luke Schenn. It appeared that Mo and Luke would be a pseudo 3rd pairing in an attempt to shelter both players from tough Tampa matchups. Despite sheltering this pairing’s responsibilities, it has allowed Luke Schenn to be one of the Buds best defencemen analytically thus far in the series. Rielly on the other hand has been the best defenceman statistically, Mo has put up 2 goals and 4 assists in his last 3 games which has him tied with Adam Fox and Miro Heiskanen for 2nd most points by a defenceman in this year’s playoffs (Neal Pionk has 7 points in 4 games and is 1st for NHL points on defence). As for plus minus, Rielly is in a 3-way tie for best plus minus among all players in the post season. The numbers are impressive alone, but the situation where all these points occurred is what's really special. 4 primary assists in a row to start a must win game 2 was the spark that got the ball rolling for the Leafs to get the series tied at 1, he then pots the OT winner in game 3 to put the Leafs ahead in the series before notching the late tying goal in game 4 that led to a second overtime win. Simply put, the Leafs are not in the position they are without Morgan Rielly, plain and simple. This is a redemption ark for a player who was in the fanbases doghouse most of the season, he has returned to form at the most important crossroads this franchise has faced in a long time. With the fate of the core, coaching staff and management depending on the results of this year’s playoffs, Morgan has elevated his play to an elite level and put his club in the best situation for success that he can. While 3-1 is a cushy situation for most teams, Leafs fan are filled with stress on the outcome of the remaining three games. All the magic that has occurred through the series thus far will feel like a waste if the Leafs can't rise to the occasion and close out a playoff round for the first time since defeating the Ottawa Senators in 7 games (April 20^th, 2004). This team is different, these players are different and for Leafs Nations ... the outcome WILL be different.

*Once again thank you to @TicTacTomar on Twitter for his amazing work capturing all the key moments of the game*

Good Will Bunting

The Toronto Maple Leafs roster has lacked a true agitator who was able to play the game at a high level ever since the Sundin era blessed us with elite pest/tough guys like Darcy Tucker and Tie Domi. The Leafs have had players with an extremely high work rate and were annoying to play against due to the amount of effort they put out each shift, Guys like Leo Komarov and Zach Hyman come to mind as players who have makeshift filled the role. The league is chalked full off players who you hate unless they’re on your team; Marchand, Lemieux, The Tkachuk’s, Bertuzzi, Gallagher, etc. The Leafs have lacked their true pest since the trade of Nazem Kadri, that was until Dubas signed former SOO Greyhound and current Mayor of Scarborough Michael Bunting. Bunting’s arrival was a breath of fresh air to a team that played with a lot of skill and very little edge in their top 6. Despite a productive season on the stat sheet this year with the Leafs, Bunting has found himself being challenged by his head coach and dropping off the top line. Michael became the focal point for controversy as officiating has been the downfall of him this season (some warranted and some ridiculous). Today we will be diving deeper into the Scarborough native. Has Bunting filled the roll he was brought in to do? Is the treatment of Bunting by the officials justified? Will Bunting be a difference maker in a tough 1st round matchup with the lightning? Should the Leafs re-sign Bunting?

 

Bunting Vs Hyman

Bunting was brought in to be the cheap replacement for recently departed Zach Hyman, Hyman was beloved by his hometown team but unfortunately his play priced him out of Toronto and ultimately led to him signing with Edmonton for 7 years at 5.5 million dollars per season. Zach fit in with the Oilers seamlessly putting up 54 points in 76 games in his first season before having a breakout year in 2022-23 with 83 points in 79 games. With Hyman gone Dubas was forced to find a cheap replacement to compliment his high cost "Big 4" forwards. Despite a small sample size with the Arizona Coyotes in 2020-2021, Bunting put up 10 goals and 3 assists in 21 games. This was enough for Dubas to decide on signing the 25-year-old rookie to a 2 year 950-thousand-dollar contract. Michael was originally brought in to be a suitable depth option for a team up against the cap; but a mixture of unrecognized talent, chemistry with superstars Matthews & Marner and a gritty edge saw Bunting soar up the depth chart and onto the top line at left wing. In his rookie season/first as a Leaf Bunting erupted and scored 23 goals along with 63 points in just under a full season. Leafs Nation was ecstatic to see our version of a Brad Marchand finally arrive, and the loss of Hyman didn’t instantly sink the team. The second season for their respective clubs has seen the pendulum swing back in Hyman’s favour to many Leafs fans chagrin. Bunting found his high penalty differential evaporate due to NHL officials’ distaste for Michael’s game and found himself heading to the box more than head coach Sheldon Keefe would like for his top line winger. Bunting has bounced through all 4 lines this season and despite the irregularity in his deployment he has managed to put up over half a point a game pace along with 22 goals. The narrative of a lot of Oilers fans have has been "Thanks for cheeping out on Zach Hyman", this wasn't the case. The Leafs would have loved to retain the services of the 28-year-old winger but 5.5 million would have put the leafs over the salary cap and wasn't possible. Hyman was a great Leaf and has been an Incredible Oiler thus far, but in all fairness, bunting has been a very good Leaf in his tenure as well. To properly compare the value to production for both these players I attempted to calculate their cost per point through their 2 years (Bunting has played 6 more games than Hyman). 

 

Cost for each Point scored

Hyman - GP: 155    Points: 159      Cost/Point: $34,591.20 per point scored as an Oiler

Bunting - GP: 161     Points: 112      Cost/Point $8,482.14 per point scored as a Leaf 

*As you can see, Cost per Point Bunting is a massive value player. Bunting is short 47 points in this comparison, so for arguments sake if you multiply Michael's $8,482.14 x 47 = $398,660.58  more dollars over 2 seasons to have Bunting match Hyman totals. So if you were to add this new value to Bunting's current salary you should get an estimate of what 47 more points would cost. This would mean it cost 11 million Dollars for Hyman to score 159 points, opposed to Bunting costing the Leafs approximately $2,697,321.16 for him to match 159 points over 2 seasons. *(hypothetical approximation) *

 

Controversial Calls 

The 2022-2023 season saw the referees and linesman put their whistles away when it comes to Mike, as many officials feel Bunting embellishes to draw penalties and in turn makes the officials look incompetent. I personally am a big fan of the agitating game Bunting plays, there is a certain art to being a top 6 pest who can throw other players off their game enough to draw penalties and I feel that the way the league has handled the player since he allegedly gained the reputation this year is ridiculous. With that being said, I do understand the logic in why this player has begun to fall out of favour with the officials. It’s not only the fact that Bunting is often actively trying to agitate the opposition and diving dramatically when he’s shoved or interfered with. The biggest flaw in his game is when someone on the ice misses a call against Bunting, Mike will make sure the referee hears about it the entire way down the ice and for most of the remaining game. His bashing of officials and arguing with calls has been his biggest downfall this season, he has now fallen victim to the wrath of the refs (Below are several egregious missed calls or offsetting penalties Bunting has experienced this season). 

A massive thank you to @TicTacTOmar on Twitter for allowing me to use his links to show the videos related to these incidents

The shove

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1605364312712908805?s=20

Carlo non-call

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1620968606845771777?s=20

Offsetting penalties with McLeod

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1634728063584948224?s=20

On the April 2nd matchup with the Detroit Red Wings the bias against Bunting was on full display and it put a spotlight on the officiating. In this contest Bunting was given offsetting penalties along with defenceman Jake Walman (2:00 Cross Checking) Bunting received (2:00 Unsportsmanlike) which might as well have been two minutes for being cross checked. The anti-Bunting officiating continued after Red Wing centre Marco Kasper started a post period scrum with Timothy Liljegren, with all 10 skaters involved in the extracurricular activities only one player received a 10-minute misconduct. Bunting was assessed the 10 minutes for “accidently on purpose” dragging a Detroit players stick away with his skates. Despite this being very intentional in an attempt to annoy a Red Wing's player and shift momentum for the Leafs, in no world does this warrant a 10-minute misconduct.

Walman offsetting penalties

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1642688498892169218?s=20

10 minute misconduct

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1642690105801428994?s=20

The treatment of Michael Bunting has become such a topic of controversy that Keefe came out to tell the media that Dubas would be reaching out to the league to discuss the ridiculous officiating his player is receiving. Since this alleged call from Maple Leafs management Bunting has continued to be targeted by the officials, on the April 4th matchup against the Blue Jackets Columbus captain Boone Jenner went after Bunting in a post whistle scrum. The officials decided the best course of action was to hold back Bunting (despite Bunting not retaliating or attempting to engage Jenner). Most recently, on the final home game of the season the Leafs delivered a whopping one-sided victory as they prepare for playoffs defeating their Original Six rival the Montreal Canadians 7-1. During the game and after a whistle Joel Edmundson decided to deliver a cross check to an unsuspecting Bunting. Fellow Scarborough Native Wayne Simmonds happened to be on the ice and immediately acted against Edmundson. Edmundson received (2:00 Cross Checking) & (2:00 Unsportsmanlike), Simmonds got (4:00 Roughing) while Bunting got (2:00 Unsportsmanlike). 

Not engaging Jenner 

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1643424215314444289?s=20

Offsetting penalties with Edmundson

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1644874710457413632?s=20

Bunting has firmly landed himself on the NHL officials hit list, where Bunting used to be incredible at drawing calls for his club, he is now often the victim of make-up calls. The refs still call the infractions committed against Michael, but now look to fabricate a call-in order to ensure Bunting isn't getting his team the power play. The best way for an opposing team to get Bunting into the box is to cross check him from behind and skate away, apparently receiving a cross check in now unsportsmanlike. A similar series of events transpired around Nazem Kadri early in his Leaf career, attention was drawn to his impressive penalty differential and suddenly the calls up and evaporated. In all fairness to the NHL officials, they do have an incredibly hard job and take a lot of unjustified criticism on a nightly basis. With that being said it is their job to "Officiate" NHL games, not "Manage" them. The Tim Peele "It wasn't much, but I wanted to get a (expletive) penalty against Nashville early in the ..." hot mic quote shed a light on how officials tamper with the flow of a game. If one team commits several blatant infractions, it is not required that the officials make a "make up call" in order to balance the game. The playoffs are official start tonight, meaning the NHL rule book is about to get thrown out the window for the most part. The refs got a preview of what's in store in the first round matchup between the Leafs and Lightning last week, where there was a total of 16 penalties called in the game (8 Penalties each) and still a few questionable/missed ones (The Corey Perry Cross-Check and the 5th man in penalties below). It will be interesting to see how the NHL officiates the post season and will bias referees be a factor for Bunting and the Leafs in this year’s playoffs. 

Corey Perry cross-check not called

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1645953107187339265?s=20

 Bunting's penalty for trying to help Tavares

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1645953475975475200?s=20

Bunting’s playoff impact

So, with Bunting's ability to draw penalties gone (Penalties tend to become less frequent in the post season as it is), what else can Michael bring to a team looking to take the next step past a strong opponent. In his rookie playoff run Bunting managed to put up a goal and 2 assists in 6 games. despite a half a point a game pace against Tampa last year, that stat line is underwhelming in comparison to his regular season output, especially for someone playing top line left wing. The deployment of Bunting in this year’s playoffs could potentially be beneficial if he is slated lower down in the lineup. If Bunting is slotted on the potential 3rd line centred by Ryan O'Reilly, he may be able to capitalize on a weaker line match than last year, while still playing with a highly skilled player. Last year Michael was essentially third wheeling with Marner & Matthews as they carried the offence for that line while being matched up with Tampa's top "Shut down" lines. With Anthony Cirelli and the Lightning's best defensive players attempting to smother the offence on the top 2 lines, this could be advantageous for Bunting's playoff production. Besides the offence and the matchup, Bunting's ability to get under the oppositions skin and throw the Lightning off their game is an underrated x-factor that should always be considered. The Leafs have often experienced pests trying to grind down their stars to gain an edge in the series, with Bunting down the lineup he is in a prime position to poke and pry at Tampa Bay's stars while having the appropriate back up for such interactions (E.g., Starting a scrum with Accari & O'Reilly as backup opposed to Marner & Matthews). Being knocked off the top line sucks, but if this happens it could be a blessing in disguise that allows him to play his most effective style come playoff time. After seeing the line rushes at practice on Sunday, it appears Keefe has reunited his top line of last year. Despite the idea of hiding Bunting on a lower line being a tactic, Sheldon knows that this has been one of his most consistent and reliable lines over the past 2 seasons. The beauty of the way Keefe has been putting his lines in a blender leading up to the playoffs means he can go back to his old reliable lines knowing what kind of shakeups he can make if his players aren’t clicking mid game. I think Michael will be playing top line at Scotiabank Arena and may find himself playing 3^rd line minutes with Ryan O’Reilly when on the road, in an attempted to create a line matching issue for Jon Cooper when the Lightning have home ice advantage.

Is Bunting a long term fit the Leafs can afford?

Frank Sirevalli of TSN came out on March 30^th 2023, stating he has Michael Bunting as the top UFA in free agency this summer. This means that a lot of teams (probably the Oilers again as signing former Leafs is their favourite thing appearently) will be taking a swing to land the Scarborough Native. Simply put, the Leafs will not be able to outbid other teams financially. The Leafs are already so close to the cap that they have had to use 4 amateurs try out goalies in the lead up to the post season due to salary cap issues. Bunting was originally the cheap replacement to Hyman, but his success has begun to price him out of Toronto as well. If Bunting opts to take a significant pay raise which is both understandable and deserved the Leafs will be bargain bin shopping for the next player to fill this roll in July. What is the expected price tag that teams will be offering Bunting on Canada day? I took a look at players of a similar age, point production and same games played in order to see comparables. Anders Lee, J.T, Compher and Phillip Danault all played 82 games and just beat Bunting’s production. Anders Lee put up 50 points this season and carries an annual cap hit of 7 million, Compher put up 52 points making half as much as Lee with 3.5 million and Danault lead the charge for points this year with 54 at a cap hit of 5.5 million. If Bunting is a consistent 50-point scorer, he can likely snag a pretty hefty raise.  After comparing his statistics to his peers and going through several different articles a lot of people are estimating 3-5 Years term at somewhere between 3-4.5 million dollars per season, this is a price tag is likely too rich for the Maple Leafs blood.  The only hope for the Leafs retaining the services of their resident pest is if Michael is willing to take a hometown discount for a longer term at a lower cap hit and if the situation/deployment (playing in the top 6) is promised as long as performance matches that of a top six player. 

I personally believe that the Leafs should try and do all they can to keep Michael Bunting in his hometown. If the Leafs and Mike are able to mutually agree on a contract around the 5-6 years at a low cap hit between the 2-2.5 million mark, there is a chance Bunting can be a long-term fit. This is a player whose path to professional hockey wasn't the easiest. He has fought and clawed from AAA hockey all the way to NHL. At no point was Bunting becoming a professional hockey player in the NHL ever guaranteed, he’s managed to seize every opportunity that has been presented to him to get him where he is now. This is a player who possess a surprising amount of skill in the way he can complement stars like the Leafs big four, he's the pest that we've missed who thrives on agitating his opponents and he's a player who has shown heart and battled to get to this spot in his career. Bunting has a passion for being a hockey player and he has even more passion for being a member of the team he grew up cheering for, the Toronto Maple Leafs. 

NCAA Hype No-one DeKnies

 

The Story Line

The Toronto Maple Leafs struck gold once before with a highly touted prospect from Arizona, joining their team and making an immediate impact. Auston Matthews was the shot of adrenaline the franchise needed to turn things around. He joined the Leafs with fellow top prospect forwards Mitch Marner & William Nylander in 2017. The roster was chalked full of recent Marlies graduates and players developed within their system from the pre "Shannaplan" Era. Auston walked into the league and put up the unforgettable 4 goal debut with a young up and coming roster. Fast forward 6 first round exits later, This Leafs roster only has 5 players (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly & Holl) remaining from Matthews' debut roster. The Roster today is loaded with a mix of skill, speed and grit. They have superstar players, a strong supporting cast of playoff style character guys in their forward group and arguably the deepest defensive group they have had in the Matthews era. Why is any of this relevant? It's relevant because the Leafs are preparing to bring another Arizona native into the mix in preparation for this year’s playoffs and are optimistic that he can step in and contribute immediately like his fellow Arizonan. Matthew Knies has been the biggest question mark for the Leafs since the trade deadline last year, his status for this upcoming season was up in the air (whether he made the jump to the NHL or remained in the NCAA for another year). With his availability up in the air for last year’s playoffs, Knies name began to swirl in rumours that he would be dealt for immediate help in the playoffs (Notably the Knies plus to Chicago for Hagel & Marc Andre Fleury trade that was nixed). Ultimately Knies chose to return to the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers for one last run at a national championship before making his jump to the pros and Dubas chose to hold on to his top prospect. With the fanbase anxiously waiting for the 20-year-old to join the Leafs, we'll take an in depth look at who Matt is and what he brings to a playoff roster. 

In 2021 the Leafs sat patiently through the first round of the NHL entry draft as they waited to see their 1st round pick that had been traded for Nick Foligno be used by the Columbus Blue Jackets to select defenceman Corson Ceulemans. The top end talent taken through the first 4 picks was incredible; Owen Power, Matty Beniers, Mason McTavish and Luke Hughes were selected and 3/4 of them have already made their NHL debut and are key contributors to their respective clubs. From pick number five all the way through to pick fifty-six there were very few players who have made the leap and or had much buzz around their development, that was until the 62nd best prospect as per Bob McKenzie's final draft ranking jumped 5 spots and was selected 57th overall by Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Leading up to this selection Knies spent two full seasons with the Tri-City Storm of USHL, Knies put up nearly a point a game in each season with a career total of 87 points in 88 games. After his selection Knies joined U. of Minnesota and continued his consistent scoring pace for 33 points in a 33 game rookie season, only to be followed by 41 points in 36 games the following year. Knies appears to be near a point a game guy at whatever level he's played thus far, which is something Dubas and Leafs management are hoping continues as he makes his jump to the NHL. 

NCAA Stat Comparisons

So, where does Knies fall in comparison to some former NCAA D1 comparables?

 

 

The obvious standout was Jack Eichel, he managed to put up unbelievable numbers in the NCAA as an 18-year-old which is why there was ever even a question between Eichel & McDavid for 1st overall. Knies managed to produce at a similar pace to these recent NCAA stars at this age, which is an encouraging start as all 4 players went on to become full time NHLers and 3 of them would be considered league superstars. 

 

 

 

As you can see for all the players who returned to the NCAA following their rookie season, they managed to take a significant step in their point production. While Knies did improve on his rookie output, his comparables almost all improved by 20 points where Knies only improved by 8 points the following year. It's would appear that Knies isn't currently pulling his weight in his sophomore season, but there is a perfectly reasonable explanation for that. He's not the same small, fast and skilled forwards who creates his offence with an elite shot from the perimeter, he is a power forward. 

 

The Player Archetype 

 

Knies does possess a high hockey IQ, creativity and a great set of hands to match; But Knies' game isn't remotely close to any of the NCAA comparables. Knies is 6-foot-3 and 205lbs, and unlike other/former Leafs, he is very strong on the puck and not afraid to use his size. Knies knows he has a larger build compared to his competition and has exploited his frame for elite puck protection. Matthew has a tendency to hold the puck while in the offensive zone with the intention of baiting in a defender, once the defender attempts to take the puck, Knies quickly turns his back to the incoming defenceman in order to shield the puck and either open more ice for his line mates or create a lane to the front of the net. Once he's engaged the defender and he sees the lane he created, he lowers his shoulder towards the defender, uses his hand/forearm & his lead leg to attack the space and keep the puck away from defensive poke checks. Knies is more than willing to take the puck to the dirty areas himself and create scramble chances in the crease for his teammates. Knies isn't one for being a part of a cycle around the edges in the offensive zone, he's the one who ends the cycle and attacks the middle of the ice that his teammates created in an attempt to manufacture a scoring chance. When Knies is looking to get possession of the puck he's not the guy who's going to run someone through the boards, he tends to lead with his stick attempting to steal the puck before using his frame to further separate the defender from it. Unlike most power forwards who would steal the puck and send it into an open area or corner for teammates to get to, Matthew looks to make a skill play to generate offence off the turnover. Mitch Brown of Eliteprospects.com classifies Knies puck skills as "No Risk Flash" meaning Knies never attempts to be too pretty with the puck in situations which could lead to a high danger chance the other way. Coming out of the USHL, he had a habit to try and force offence off of the rush opposed to now where he elects to cut back after gaining zone entry, use his puck protection skills and awaits support from his team. Matt has shown great "off the puck offence" getting to open areas to provide options for his line mates. Now for all these positives he's shown at the NCAA level there are some flaws in his game, he has the habit of not shoulder checking and throwing blind passes that his teammates miss and as most bigger hockey players his skating can use some polishing but he does have average foot speed. 

 

NHL Comparable

 

So, is there a comparable former NCAA forward who plays a similar style to Matthew Knies who has excelled at the NHL level? Yes, former Boston College winger Chris Kreider put up very similar numbers as a 20-year-old in college. Kreider didn't become a point per game player until his final year in Boston 2011-2012 where he put up 45 points in 44 games before joining the New York Rangers on a playoff run. Kreider chipped in 6 points in 18 playoff games before falling to the New Jersey Devils in the Eastern Conference Finals. Kreider has been a major piece of the Rangers since then, becoming a consistent 20 goal scorer before a breakout 52 goals in 2021-2022. So, besides production & situation, what similarities do these 2 players have in common? Like Kreider, Knies' office is the top of the crease, he sets up shop as the net front presence for Minnesota's power play, applying his large frame to take away the goalie's vision and is prepared to tip home and or put any rebounds back towards the net. If Knies has a career even remotely similar to Kreider, the Leafs may have selected one of the biggest steals of that year’s draft. 

 

Expectations?

 

Matthew Knies will join the Leafs and be the second coming of Eric Lindros on route to the Leafs Capturing the Stanl … Sorry was that too optimistic? It would be completely unfair to put the burden on ending the Leafs playoff drought on the shoulders of a 20-year-old rookie, But Knies does add several things that the current roster lacks. You’re adding a player who uses his size to his advantage (Unlike the Pierre Engvall’s & Frederik Gauthier’s of the past), He is a net front presence who utilizes screens and deflections to generate offence & “Playoff Style” goals and does some of his finest work in the dirty areas. I wouldn’t expect Knies join Toronto and make an impact the way Matthews, Marner or Nylander did as his style is completely different. But the contribution of Knies may be closer to a Connor Brown or Zach Hyman, not as flashy right out of the gate but is a solid depth contributor who slowly rounds out his game as he progresses further up the lineup. If he is able to score at a similar clip like his NHL comparison Chris Krieder did when making the jump from NCAA, seeing Knies be a 0.33 point per game player throughout the post season would keep him on the same scoring pace as Krieder. 

 

Potential Forward Lines w/ Knies

 

Jarnkrok – Matthews – Marner

 

Knies* – Tavares – Nylander

 

Bunting - O’Reilly – Accari

 

                  Lafferty – Kampf – Kerfoot/Aston-Reese

 

 

Extras: Simmonds, McMann, Steeves

 

*If Knies doesn’t play; Kerfoot is 3rd line LW & Bunting is 2nd line LW

 

NCAA Update 

 

Game 1: Thursday March 23^rd, Knies and the Minnesota Golden Gophers took on the Canisius Griffins in the first round of the D1 Men’s Ice Hockey Championship & Frozen Four tournament. Early in the second period Canisius took a 2-1 lead and appeared to have the top ranked Gophers on their heals before Minnesota opened the flood gates and scored the next 8 goals for a 9-2 final score. Knies did go pointless in the game but was on the ice acting as a screen on the power play for 3 separate goals. Knies’ impact sometimes goes beyond the stat sheet and he contributes for his team in an underappreciated manner. During the broadcast of this game the announcers referred to Matthew Knies as “The most complete player in college hockey”. 

 

Game 2: On Saturday March 25^th, The Golden Gophers match up against inner state rivals Minnesota St. Cloud. In a matchup determining who advances to face Boston University in the Frozen Four, Knies and his Gophers wouldn’t be denied. Knies again went pointless in the 4-1 victory over but was +3 in the contest and screening the goalie on 2 of those goals. Knies is showing that winning the national championship means more to him than being the hero. Hopefully this un-selfish win as a team mentality is present once he joins the Leafs. 

 

Game 3: Wednesday April 5th was the beginning of the NCAA Frozen Four in Tampa, Florida. Knies and the Golden Gophers match up against Boston University for their chance to head to the National Championship. After going down 1-0 early in the first the Gophers struck back to knot the game at one a piece, As per usual Knies was in his office at the top of the blue paint screening the Boston net minder for the tying goal. Despite not showing up on the score sheet, Knies was very noticeable throughout the game often driving play. The Gophers took the game with a 6-2 final to matchup against #2 ranked Quinnipiac.

Game 4 (NCAA Finals):  The end to Knies' college career certainly didn't go to plan. Knies and his squad had their eyes on a National championship and sadly fell short in Overtime. Minnesota tried to hold onto a 2-1 lead late in the contest before Quinnipiac pushed for the tying goal and forced overtime. Knies didn't stand out much in this game positively or negatively, but despite the lack of production Matthew was a key part to the Gophers season and big reason they made it this far. 

The day after the NCAA Championship loss, Knies inked a $925,000 3-year entry level contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Knies will be joining the club for the remaining 3 regular season games in preparation for the post season matchup with Tampa Bay. It's not fair to put the pressure of being our playoff saviour on a 20-year old kid. Knies is a valuable piece to add to an already deep Leafs forward group. Since the loss Saturday is most likely fresh in his mind, he (like all his new teammates lived last year) has already experienced heart breaking loses in Amalie arena and will be doing everything in their power to prevent it from happening again. 

Leafs vs Lightning; Round 1 Preview

With a Leaf victory over Ottawa and 2 points for Tampa on Saturday. The Leafs have officially clinched their matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning for the second straight season. Tampa has been the juggernaut of the NHL over the past 3 seasons, and this has led them to the cup final in each of those seasons. The rest of the games in the regular season simply feel like a formality, this is the lull in the year where both Toronto and Tampa can use the remainder of their games as a "Pre-season" to fine tune their rosters for game 1. With the matchup finally decided (Other than home ice) we will take an in-depth look at the matchup between these two Atlantic powerhouses and see how they match up this post season compared to the last. 

The flat cap has seen both Toronto and Tampa loose key players to free agency since the COVID pandemic handcuffed many clubs. After each deep cup run, Tampa was forced to lose key pieces of their team each off season. The summer of 2022 was no different for the Lightning, Tampa was forced to part ways with a massively underrated and a key player to all their playoff success Ondrej Palat. This is a major blow to Tampa as Palat was 2nd for playoff scoring with 21 points in 23 games only being behind Nikita Kucherov. Other than Palat departing Tampa, they started the regular season with a very similar forward group to the one they went into the playoffs with last year, the other notable departures came on the back end with Lighting trading Ryan McDonagh to the Preds for mainly for cap relief and having Jan Rutta sign in Pittsburgh as a free agent. These have been key pieces in the recent Tampa dynasty and are massive losses to arguably one of the deepest teams in the league. Tampa did look to bolster their roster in preparation for this season’s playoffs by shipping out 5 draft pics and Cal Foote for Tanner Jeannot from the Predators. I think it’s fair to say Tampa is still one of the stronger teams in the NHL this season despite the departure of 3 crucial players, but in comparison to last year they have become slightly more vincible. 

Notable Players Out: 

F Ondej Palat (Signed in New Jersey)

D Ryan McDonagh (Traded to Nashville)

D Jan Rutta (Signed in Pittsburgh) 

Notable Players In:

F Tanner Jeannot (Acquired from Nashville @ Trade Deadline)

D Philipe Myers (Acquired from Nashville in Offseason)

D Ian Cole (Signed in Offseason)

F Michael Eyssimont (Acquired from San Jose @ Trade Deadline)

The Leafs were able to have another long off season for reflection after the Lightning sent them home in round 1 of the 2022 playoffs. Dubas and staff had a quiet offseason outside of a complete overhaul in the crease after losing fan favourite goaltender Jack Campbell to the Oilers in free agency. This loss led Dubas to acquire a pair of new goalies via free agency and trade (for a full breakdown of the goaltending carousel (https://takeitorleafit67.blogspot.com/2023/03/conclusions-for-crowded-crease.html). The Leafs lost a few more depth players, most notable being Ilya Mikheyev in free agency. The Leafs big offseason acquisition was Calle Jarnkrok signing with buds, I personally have been a big fan of "The Iron Hook" since his time in Nashville and was happy to see him join the Leafs despite him being a better version of Alex Kerfoot. The real Impact that tipped the scales in the Leafs favour for this year’s playoffs was the aggressive roster management at the deadline bringing in 7 new players to the organization (6 of them being locks to be in contention for a playoff roster spot) while only sacrificing 2 of their everyday NHLers. Dubas brought the Leafs both depth and star power at this year’s deadline without moving any major prospects or members of the current roster. The Leafs managed to replace their notable losses in the offseason and then improve their roster at the deadline making them better equipped for a matchup against arguably the best NHL team since the pandemic.

Notable Players Out: 

G Jack Campbell (Signed with Oilers in Offseason)

F Colin Blackwell (Signed with Blackhawks in Offseason)

G Peter Mrazek (Traded to Blackhawks @ NHL Draft)

F Ilya Mikheyev (Signed with Vancouver in Offseason)

F Ondrej Kase (Signed with Carolina in Offseason)

 D Ilya Lyubushkin (Signed with Buffalo in Offseason)

D Jake Muzzin (Injured in 2022-23 season, likely career ending) * 

F Jason Spezza (Retired in Offseason)

F Pierre Engvall (Traded to NY Islanders @ Deadline)

D Rasmus Sandin (Traded to Washington @ Deadline)

Notable Players In: 

F Calle Jarnkrok (Signed in Offseason)

F Zack Aston-Reese (Signed in Offseason)

G Matt Murray (Acquired in Offseason from Ottawa)

G Ilya Samsonov (Signed in Offseason) 

D Connor Timmins (Acquired from Arizona in season)

F Ryan O'Reilly (Acquired from St. Louis @ Deadline)

F Noel Accari (Acquired from St. Louis @ Deadline)

D Jake McCabe (Acquired from Chicago @ Deadline)

F Sam Lafferty (Acquired from Chicago @ Deadline)

D Erik Gustafson (Acquired from Washington @ Deadline) 

D Luke Schenn (Acquired from Vancouver @ Deadline)

F Radim Zohorna* (Acquired from Calgary @ Deadline) player had a strong showing against Ottawa, may be more of an impact than initially thought

Since the end of game 7 last year, it's hard to argue the Leafs roster hasn't gotten much stronger while Tampa has softened. Are the personal changes enough to tip the scales in Toronto’s favour? Or are the Leafs bound to relive the same nightmare they've faced the previous 6 seasons. 

Each roster has a plethora of elite talent that are the usual suspects for their team’s playoff success, as well as some intriguing depth options that have the potential to change the momentum of a series or steal a big game. Here's an idea of what these game breakers and sleeper picks can contribute for their team. 

Tampa’s Game Breakers

Steven Stamkos - The captain of the Tampa Lightning went first overall in his draft year for a reason, and he's surpassed the expectations placed upon him that day. The former 2-time Rocket Richard trophy winner has shown up in big moments over the last few seasons to help keep Tampa as an NHL powerhouse and back-to-back champions. Stamkos has been an elite goal scorer throughout his career and is potential game breaker every time he's in the offensive zone (especially in his one-timer office at the top of the circle)

Nikita Kucherov - Kuch is an elite player who somehow elevates his game even further in the post season.  On route to their 3 Stanley Cup finals appearances, Kucherov has been the leader in playoff scoring in all 3 years. Despite a consistent output on the big stage, Nikita's ability to be a pest is an underrated aspect in his game. Like the Marchand's and Tkachuk’s of the world, Kuch is not at all shy of taking that "sneaky dirty" shot to agitate his opposition. If Kucherov can maintain his production rate against the Leafs in round 1 it could spell disaster for Toronto. 

Victor Headman - Some consider Hedman the best defenceman in the NHL over the last 5 plus years. Hedman is a unique combination of size & skill, making him an ideal defenceman for playoff hockey. He is consistently just below a point a game pace in the post season and brings a tough nasty edge into whatever series he's a part of. Hedman has racked up a Conn Smythe, a Norris trophy along with 2 cups in his impressive career and will be looking to add to these accolades at the Leafs expense. 

Brayden Point - Point is another crucial member to Tampa's success in recent years, he's over a point a game in his NHL post season career and is looking for a bounce back performance after going down in the first round with an injury last year. Despite a shortened playoff run point still managed to put up 7 points in 9 games last year, and had Tampa had a healthy Point in the Stanley Cup final, there was a strong chance that Tampa achieved the three-peat.

Anthony Cirelli - Unlike his superstar teammates, Cirelli doesn't impact the game on the box score as frequently, his playoff output is around 0.33 points per game. Cirelli tends to score those points in "big moments" and is a very effective shutdown centre often tasked with stifling the offence of the opposing team’s top line. He'll likely be tasked with keeping the Matthews/Tavares line off the score sheet as much as possible.

Brandon Hagel - This was a player the Leafs had looked at last year, but they were eventually out bid by the Lightning. Hagel was brought in as a replacement option for the Gourde-Coleman-Goodrow 3rd line that was so crucial for the back-to-back cups. Hagel was an effective depth player for the Lightning last year as he found his footing in Tampa but only put up 6 points in 23 playoff games. After a full training camp and preseason with the Bolts, Hagel has put up 27 goals this season so far and an impressive 59 points in 77 games. With Hagel more comfortable going into the playoffs this year, a sizeable increase to his playoff scoring is likely on the horizon.

Andrei Vasilevskiy - In my opinion Vasilevskiy is undoubtably the best goalie in the NHL. This is an elite goalie who flips a switch in the post season and was nearly unbeatable for 3 straight post seasons. This player doesn't need a long breakdown or a deep dive into his stats, this is a player who thrives under pressure. If the fatigue of 3 cup runs hasn't worn him down too much, this is the player that scares me the most in a matchup against Tampa.

 

Tampa’s Sleeper picks:

Nick Paul - Paul is a player who didn't concern me at all going into last year’s playoffs at all. He then proceeded to deliver 2 daggers in game 7 to single handedly beat the Leafs 2-1 in round 1. I never doubted that Nick Paul was a competent NHL player or that he wasn't skilled, simply put I was more concerned with Tampa's top end talent and didn't expect Paul to ruin my year. This year the Leafs should be aware that this player can and will show up in high pressure moments and they must be equal to the task to stop the former Sen.

Tanner Jeannot - Fool Me Once, Shame on You; Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me. Jeannot has all the potential to be this year’s Nick Paul in game 7. Jeannot had an outstanding rookie season in Nashville and had himself right in the middle of the Calder trophy race. The sophomore slump hit Jeannot hard, after putting up 24 goals as a rookie, he's only managed to put up 6 goals between Nashville and Tampa in 74 games. Tampa paid a king’s ransom to get Jeannot, and if it wasn't the Lightning many would consider this one of the worst trades of the deadline. But because it's Tampa and they're playing the Leafs I'm mentally prepared for Tanner's coming out party.  

Mikhail Sergachev - This was a player who was a luxury depth piece that was able to thrive in the lower half of the depth chart allowing Hedman and McDonagh to deal with heavy assignments and let Sergachev play his game against easier matchups. With McDonagh gone the Bolts are likely looking for Sergy to step into the top 4 and be a more than adequate replacement. It's sink or swim time for Mikhail, and this is a player who has all the tools to swim.

The 4th Line - Maroon, Bellemare & Perry are all lumped together as that's when they're at their peak. The chemistry and dynamic that these 3 bring to a playoff series can be a nightmare to play against. They are more than capable of chipping in offence, getting under the oppositions skin and answer the bell if they need to fight. It's no guarantee that this line is the thing that sinks the Leafs, but this line can potentially be very dangerous.

 

Toronto’s Game Breakers

Auston Matthews - Auston is in the midst of a down year due to a hand injury that has plagued him throughout the season. This down year has seen Matthews adjust his game to a more defensive style where he leads all forwards in blocked shots with 86. He has also thrown 75 hits, has a +/- of +32, 37 goals and 78 points. The regular season has never been an issue for Auston, but a strong playoff is needed in order to beat the Bolts.

Mitch Marner - Marner has been on a tear this season, he's set multiple Leafs records for scoring streaks and has been fairly consistent all season. Like Matthews, Marner has never had a problem producing in the regular season. Mitch has had a tendency to be scorching hot or ice cold in the playoffs, one big difference in Marner's game this season is his willingness to take the shot himself opposed to forcing a pass. With Mitch becoming a legitimate scoring threat it makes the dynamic winger even more difficult to defend. 

John Tavares - John Tavares has always been decent in the post season for the Leafs, he is often contributing just under a point per game pace since joining his hometown team but to finally lead his club past the first round a JT dominated first round may be required. 

William Nylander - The 2022-23 season has been the season Nylander has taken massive steps in showing the league he's one of the NHL's top players. It often felt like Willie was third wheeling Mitch & Auston, but Nylander has been the beacon of consistency until the last few weeks. This slump doesn't worry me too much as Will Ny the Scoring Guy has often been the Leafs best playoff performer. I anticipate another strong Nylander post season, that hopefully leads to an extended playoff run.

Ryan O'Reilly - Acquiring a former Selke and Conn Smythe winner for your playoff matchup is always a positive. O'Reilly has led a team with less top end talent all the way to a cup before and now that he can bounce between a supporting role and a top 6 role. Ryan is going to be a nightmare to match as a third liner which I see being the option to most effectively use O'Reilly. Hopefully this big swing at the deadline leads to a home run in the post season.

Morgan Rielly - The start of the year was one to forget for Mo, after a very pedestrian start to the season Rielly suffered a knee injury that kept him out of the lineup for an extended period. When he finally returned it appeared he was hurting the team with his play more than helping. After Dubas bolstered the blue line at the deadline, Morgan was able to have some of his minutes efficiently sheltered. This shift in Rielly's deployment has allowed him to get back to his form and contribute in a positive way. It's up to Mo to further elevate his play against a strong Tampa team.

Samsonov/Murray - There is a very real possibility that the Leafs playoffs hopes, and Kyle Dubas' job are reliant on the performance of these 2 men. Kyle took a gamble on this tandem and in the regular season it has paid off so far, but as Leaf Nation now knows; the regular season success means nothing. The entire fate of the franchise is centred around one or both men who will need to out duel the league’s best goalie in order to get the Leafs into round 2.

 

Toronto’s Sleeper Picks:

Michael Bunting - Bunting needs to be the depth scoring that is a difference maker. Bunting needs to be our Nick Paul; he needs to use those aspects of his game that gets under the opponents’ skin to shift the momentum of a series then deliver a dagger in a big moment. It's a lot to ask to show up in a big moment, but we need the Mayor of Scarborough to show up for his childhood team in a big way.

Calle Jarnkrok - A sneaky good signing has started heating up late in the season after a promotion to the top line. The Leafs will need this player to continue his scoring pace that has had him set a career high this year if they want to overcome the Goliath in front of them. 

Noel Accari - This is a player who is going to help the Leafs in the same way the Lightning's 4th line can hurt them. He can chip in depth offence, agitate the top guys and grind you down throughout a series. Accari has fit seamlessly since joining Toronto and his finish every check mentality has rubbed off on his line mates. This is a player I can see being a surprising difference maker in the playoffs and I Hope Cookie proves me right.

David Kampf - Kampf has only been a Leaf for a short time, but his ability to be an extremely efficient shut down centre has been a massive boost to the team. Kampf is going to be tasked in a similar way to Anthony Cirelli, chip in offence when you can and limit the oppositions offence as much as possible. Kampf's ability to turn the Penalty Kill into a scoring chance for the Leafs can possibly be a massive momentum shift in a game. 

Luke Schenn - I don't think Luke will be the one to score in a big moment. But Schenn won 2 cups as a member of the Lightning. He knows these guys, and hopefully that gives Luke an edge when it comes to defending them. Luke can swing a game with a massive hit or a fight, this is something the Leafs have lacked in previous playoff matchups. Hopefully the "Human Eraser" can erase his former team from this year’s playoff bracket. 

 

2022-23 Season Stats Comparison

Both these teams have had similar season stats with only decimal points being the difference in where they rank, Tampa is ahead of Toronto in Goals for, Power Play% and Shooting%. Regardless of who holds the edge in whichever offensive category you choose to focus on, the overall comparison of these 2 teams’ offences is nearly identical.

 

When it comes to the defensive metrics of both teams, Toronto has the slight edge in all the major categories. Again, the difference between most of these stats are so minuscule that too much stock shouldn't be put into it. 

 

If one thing is clear regarding the way both teams have played it's that this is basically an evenly matched series, all the analytics go out the window and it will be determined by a combination of goaltending and which team wants it more. Tampa will obviously be the favourite in this clash as they have experienced an incredible amount of playoff success over the past few seasons, they have a world class goaltender that Toronto is tasked with beating. Getting out of the first round has been the Achilles heel for a team loaded with elite talent. Toronto's in for another tough matchup come late April, but if this team can finally slay the first-round demons that have plagued them in the Matthews Era, a long and fruitful playoff run could be a result from their first catalyst of success. It's too early to worry about the Bruins in round 2 or what contender is coming out of the west. It's time to prepare for the final "All or Nothing", "Last Dance", "Do or Die" scenario for the Leafs players, management and fans.