With the recent departure of one of the fanbases favourite whipping boys in Pierre Engvall, Leafs Nation is left with one major target. Holl's tenure in Toronto has been quite the roller coaster since his call up in late 2018. From being a prisoner to Mike Babcock’s tyranny, a redemption arc in the Covid shortened North Division and finally a nosedive in his play due to the declining health of Jake Muzzin the following year. Holl began to feel expendable to the fan base leading into this season. A rocky beginning to the year was concerning but his game settled down mid-season following the Leafs back end being decimated by injury (Muzz, Brodie, Mete, Benn, Rielly). Holl has been a controversial player for the Leafs this season, as his spot and security in the lineup over up and coming Swedish defenceman Timothy Liljegren has been a head scratcher. But something about Holl's game has granted him favour in head coach Keefe's eyes, this has him as a reoccurring and trusted member of the Leafs starting 6 defenceman and is a heavily relied upon penalty killer. The Leafs currently have a log jam of NHL calibre players on the back end and barring any injuries it’s a questionable decision to have Holl higher than sixth on the depth chart. Is his roster placement warranted by advanced analytics? Or is eye test enough to question the Leafs management's decision?
So first off, who is Justin Holl? He was originally drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2nd round (54th overall) at the 2010 NHL entry draft. The Tonko Bay, Minnesota native spent 4 years after being drafted at the University of Minnesota putting up a pedestrian 38 points through 4 seasons and at no point taking the step to dominate the NCAA competition. The 2014-15 saw Holl unable to lock down a roster spot for the Rockford IceHogs only playing in a pair of games before heading to the East Coast Hockey League's Indy Fuel. While in the ECHL Justin put up stellar numbers going just above a half point a game as a defenceman, this performance caught the eye of Toronto Marlies Coach (Keefe) and General Manager (Dubas) and he became their reclamation project. The vote of confidence put into Holl certainly paid off, as he was an integral piece of the Marlies growth and eventual capture of the Calder Cup. This undoubtedly earned him a massive amount of favour from his now NHL coach & GM and has allowed him to remain a regular NHL player even through tough stretches with his game.
Holl's start with the big club was a dream come true, through his first and only 2 games that season Holl scored a goal in each to become the first defenceman in the Maple Leafs’ 100-year history to accomplish that feat. His strong debut was rewarded by then head coach Mike Babcock by essentially making him a professional hockey spectator in the press box and only playing in 11 games that following season. The Holl Hostage situation carried into the next season up until Babcock was relieved of his head coaching duties early in the 2019-20 campaign, allowing Justin to finally become a full time NHLer. Holl spent the remainder of that season and the following one as a steady and competent partner with Jake Muzzin. Through a 3-game stretch against the Oilers in the Covid shortened North Division year, the Muzz-Holl pairing was tasked with playing against the Oilers top line and managed to hold generational phenom Connor McDavid pointless through 3 straight games. This performance had some fans jokily talking about him getting Norris trophy votes for his play since his freedom from the press box. After a major spinal/neck injury to Jake Muzzin in the playoffs series against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Muzz's health was in question and was slowly and subtly on the decline. As the 2020-2021 season began Jake Muzzin's health and ability to support Justin dropped off, which had Leafs Nation questioning if the play of Holl was actually a result of Muzzin being the straw that stirred the drink. Holl's status as an NHL player began to fall more and more into question as the season rolled on and the deficiencies in his game became more and more evident without Muzzin picking up the slack. Holl's 5 games in the playoffs had fans baffled as his play was not up to snuff for a tough matchup against Tampa Bay, many fans felt one of the young Swedes (Sandin & especially Liljegren) were more deserving and better suited in a matchup against the Lightning.
The playoff performance last year thad many members of the fan base (Myself included) questioning Holl's status within the top 6 on the depth chart (Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin, Giordano, Sandin, Liljegren, Holl, Benn & Mete) are all considered competent NHL defenceman. An accidental collision with Coyotes Clayton Keller put an end to Muzz's season (And likely his career) just 4 games into the 2022-23 season. This opened up the depth chart to a point where Holl's inclusion in the top 6 defencemen felt justifiable, but the fan base felt that regardless of the situation that permitted this chance; he was on thin ice. A swap of AHL players; Curtis Douglas for Connor Timmins, brought the Leafs a former top prospect who himself was plagued with the injury bug through the early years of his career. The Maple Leafs back end became even more decimated through injuries with the buds losing Rielly, Brodie, Benn and Mete in late November. With the surprise contributions and steady play of newly acquired Timmins, the growth shown in running the offence by both Sandin & Liljegren, the NHL debut of Mac Hollowell and finally the heavy shut down minutes contributed by Holl & Giordano kept the team afloat. This not only stopped Toronto from hitting a skid and derailing their season, but also allowed the team to go on a heater through this stretch losing only 3 of 15 games. As much as Leafs Nation may want to deny it, Holl has been crucial to where the team currently sits in the standings. At this year’s deadline we saw Dubas overhaul the back end shipping out Rasmus Sandin and bringing in Jake McCabe, Erik Gustafsson and Luke Schenn. The by-product of these moves now mean the log jam in the backend is even greater. On the March 1st game against the Oilers, the Leafs put out one of their worst efforts all season dropping the game 5-2. This game saw the top end talent play without any “purpose or intelligence” in the words of Sheldon Keefe. One performance in that game did stand out though. Holl laid 2 of the bigger hits of his career by levelling Connor McDavid in the corner with a thunderous hit followed up by catching Kailer Yamamoto circling the net with his head down for his 2nd bone crushing hit of the game. Holl then followed the Yamamoto hit by answering the challenge issued by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to drop the gloves. Although Holl didn't fair particularly well during said fight, it felt like Justin Holl was fighting for his chance to not only stay in the top 6 but also with the Maple Leafs past the trade deadline. After watching this irregular game from Holl it left me wondering if he just sprinkled in a massive hit every game or 2, would all his critics overlook his defensive warts and propel him into a fan favourite similar to Ilya Lyubushkin last season. Too much stock shouldn't be put into one game where Holl finally used his 6-foot-3 205 pound frame to ramp up the physicality and intensity in a game where the rest of the lineup wasn't in it, but this does show that come playoff time he is capable of switching to a style of play favourable in the post.
The eye test for this player shows me a very mediocre NHL player. He doesn't possess any elite aspect in his game. He is what some in the hockey world and the Leafs community refer to as a "big for nothing" player as his large frame is rarely used for big hits, clearing the front of the net and winning 50/50 puck battles. Holl falls into the class of a two-way defender but definitely leans more towards the offensive side of the puck, showing the ability to make strong and smart passes to efficiently exit the defensive zone when he is on his game and is consistently able to chip in close to 20 points every season as a depth defenceman. When he is on his game defensively or sheltered by stronger defender (Muzzin/Giordano) Holl is able to play a very effective shut down roll against some of the league’s top stars. Holl does seem to have trouble consistently finding this aspect of his game, often being one of the first players the camera pans to after a goal against. To the surprise of some Holl was the teams leader in hits before Dubas' playoff roster revamp, meaning although he doesn't throw big hits often, he is not shy of finishing a hit. The eye test draws me to a slight parallel to a former Leaf who had the early parts of his career being mismanaged. While on the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets & Buffalo Sabres, Zack Bogosian was a player being pushed to be a top pairing guy asked to chip in offence, be sound defensively and be a pillar of some below average rosters. The Sabres spent years trying to force a square peg through a round hole before ultimately terminating Bogo's contract mid-season. As a Leaf fan watching Bogosian on the Sabres for 6 years I personally never understood the appeal of Bogo as a top defender in the NHL, and to put it simply he is not a top defender and isn’t capable of bearing the load that comes with it. When deployed in the appropriate role in the correct situation Bogosian’s was invaluable depth for Tampa Bay's initial cup run, his time with the Leafs in the North Division and his return to the cup final with Tampa. Could Justin Holl being used a 7/8th defenceman (6th with injuries) be where he is most useful to the Leafs come playoff time? Coming out of the press box to give the backend a different look after a tough playoff game from someone in the top 6? I think the idea of having Holl on the outside looking in for game 1 of the playoffs may be the spark to light a fire within the player and create an intense internal competition for the Leafs starting lineup come playoff time.
We know that Holl was a Keefe/Dubas reclamation project that worked out at the AHL level, but does analytically driven Dubas see something in the Holl's numbers we don't? The Atlantic Division has the 3 playoff spots held down by the Bruins in the midst of a historic regular season run, the Lightning looking to go to the cup final for a 4th straight year and the Leafs looking to slay their first-round demons. For the sake of simplifying Corsi and Fenwick I have chosen each team’s top defenceman and then their 6th defenceman on the depth chart and am ranking them based on their career analytics. First off ill give an explanation for these 2 advanced stats and then rank the selected players (Rielly, Holl, McAvoy, Forbort, Hedman, Fleury) in their respective order for their careers.
Corsi: (40-60 Average Range in NHL) {Above 55% = Elite}
The Measure of Shot Attempt differential while at even strength. This includes shots on goal, missed shots on goal and blocked shot attempts towards the opposition’s net minus the same shot attempts directed at your own teams net. A good Corsi score boils down to your team generating more offence than you allow while at even strength
*= This Season
1. Charlie McAvoy: Corsi For Career % 54.9 - {54.8}*
2. Morgan Rielly: Corsi For Career % 52.7 - {55.3}*
3. Victor Hedman: Corsi For Career % 52.4 - {53.1}*
4. Haydn Fleury: Corsi For Career % 49.0 - {44.7}*
5. Justin Holl: Corsi For Career % 46.4 - {43.5}*
6. Derek Forbort: Corsi For Career % 43.6 - {39.7}*
Fenwick: (40-60 Average Range in NHL) {Over 50% is Good, Under 50% is Bad}
A positive Fenwick number indicates that a team/player spends more time in the offensive zone than the defensive zone.
*= This Season
1. Charlie McAvoy: Fenwick For Career % 55.8 - {55.2}*
2. Victor Hedman: Fenwick For Career % 52.4 - {53.4}*
3. Morgan Rielly: Fenwick For Career % 51.9 - {55.9}*
4. Haydn Fleury: Fenwick For Career % 48.3 - {44.1}*
5. Justin Holl: Fenwick For Career % 47.0 - {44.2}*
6. Derek Forbort: Fenwick For Career % 43.7 - {40.9}*
Analytically you can see that the worst Corsi & Fenwick doesn't belong to Justin Holl, it is solely possessed by the Bruins 6th defenceman Derek Forbort. The catch is, he belongs to potentially the best NHL team ever. Another flaw with going straight to analytics for roster decisions is that it would have you select McAvoy (who is a phenomenal player in his own right) and potentially Morgan Rielly over perennial Norris trophy candidate Victor Hedman. Morgan Rielly's numbers this year show him in the midst of an "elite" season that is better than both Hedman & McAvoy, this is in fact not the case as many members of the Toronto fanbase and media are commenting on the down year Mo is having. The Leafs worst player for advanced stats who is a full time NHLer is actually Jake McCabe, but the value beyond analytics have him a crucial member of the top 6 come playoff time. The stats do matter, but sometimes organizations can get lost in the numbers to see what is happening night to night on the ice.
Justin Holl is not some analytics darling who quietly puts up elite advanced stats and is under appreciated by old school hockey fans, and he is not a player who's play on the ice consistently speaks for itself despite the stats like Jake McCabe. Justin Holl is an average NHL calibre depth defenceman plain and simple. He, like every athlete in professional sports is subject to the roller coaster of good and bad games. That being said, he is not some AHL scrub who doesn't deserve to be in the league. Come playoff time I personally do not have Holl in my starting lineup, but he is my first injury replacement/lineup swap for anyone not named Morgan Rielly (Who should be replaced by Gustafsson if needed). Below are my ideal lines and depth chart come playoff time, assuming there are no injuries between now and the 1st Round.
Starting D for Game 1
1. McCabe - Brodie
2. Rielly - Schenn
3. Giordano – Liljegren
Depth in order of draw into lineup
1: Holl - Gustafsson
2: Benn - 3: Mete
For the time being, the lineup card is solely in Keefe's hands. Only time will tell if he values the new additions in the backend enough to push Holl out of the starting lineup. As Leaf fans there is nothing we can do besides support the coach, management & the players the rest of the way in hopes of a deep playoff run and not another long summer Holl-iday.
Thanks to https://www.hockey-reference.com/ for all advanced stats
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