Conclusions for a Crowded Crease

Success in playoffs starts in the crease

As we are in the dog days of the regular season and the playoff picture is all but decided besides home ice, the Leafs will likely be matched up for another 1st round tilt against Tampa Bay. As a fan, these games often feel inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. The only focus within Leafs Nation at the moment is finally getting over their playoff slump and winning a round for the 1st time since 2004. With a majority of the roster already set in stone aside from a few minor tweaks to the game one starting lineup, the one position still creating a debate within the fan base is which goalie will be standing in the crease come puck drop of game 1. The Leafs have 4 options to hold the crease come playoff time and that will be determined through performance and or injury. An in depth look will be taken at the 4 men who  potentially will be involved in clearing this hurdle that has plagued the club the last 6 years. 

To start in the order of potential likelihood, i'll start with the goalie i believe is least likely to start a game in the first round, Erik K
allgren. Erik is a 26 year old Swedish net minder at 6 feet and 200 lbs, he joined the Leafs organization during the 2021-22 season with the Marlies before a string of injuries had him make his NHL debut. He played 14 games that season and added 10 more this season putting up a 3.04 GAA with an .892 SV% , he racked up 11 wins through his NHL career but had no playoff starts as of yet. Kallgren is the least likely to touch playoff ice this season but provides a decent option as the fourth goalie on the depth charts. This is a luxury not many teams have in case the injury bug decimates their crease come playoff time. 

The goalie more likely to get the call from the AHL is 24 year old rookie Joseph Woll. The Dardenne Prairie, Missouri native can best be described as a wild card option for the Buds, as he has only played in 7 NHL games through 2 seasons but managed to put up a surprising 5-2-0 record while boasting a 2.45 GAA and .922 SV%. Despite the small sample size Woll has at the NHL level, Joseph has been putting on a clinic with the Marlies this season. The 2022-2023 AHL All-star has been lights out this season and produced an impressive 12 game winning streak and an overall record of 16-2-0 with a 2.37 GAA and .928 SV%. It is completely unfair to put the weight of a playoff success drought on the back of Woll, but with that being said we've seen in the passed (with a familiar name to be mentioned) and St. Louis Blues rookie Jordan Binnington; sometimes a rookie goalie joins the team around playoff time and goes on a hot streak and the team rides it on a deep playoff run. In a perfect world our number 3 goalie isn't called upon in this years playoffs and the current starting tandem can stay healthy and get the job done while he leads the Toronto Marlies on a Cup run of their own. 

Now to the aforementioned rookie sensation who came into the league for a playoff run and ended up leading his team to a Stanley Cup in his first attempt is none other than Matt Murray. The former Penguin did so well running a tandem with Marc-Andre Fleury in the 2016 playoffs, that the Pens rode the goaltending duo to a cup again the following season. The Pens became the first team to go back-to-back since the Red Wings in 1997 & 1998. After back-to-back cups (Where Murray was the goaltender chosen to close out the final game each year) Flower was plucked away by the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft and Murray became "The Guy" in Pittsburgh. As Murray was asked to shoulder more of the load as a starting goaltender for the Penguins, a run in with concussions and other ailments began to accumulate having Matt miss 27 games due to injury in his last 2 season before being traded to the rebuilding Ottawa Senators. Matt's time in Ottawa was an absolute mess, 2 years in our nations capital had Murray miss 54 games (3-8 of those games were from COVID-19/Illness). Murray's fall from grace was fast and hard; He went from coming into the league and accomplishing a feat most players never experience by becoming a 2 time Stanley Cup champion while considered a rookie through both seasons, to becoming a non option on a team that tried to come out of his rebuild a bit too soon. 

The Murray Era in Toronto had the fanbase angry & anxious. After GM Kyle Dubas let fan favourite goaltender Jack Campbell walk in free agency to the Oilers for a 5 year by 5 million contract (a blessing in disguise), the fan base was puzzled on what plans he had to fill the massive hole in our crease? Dubas brought in his favourite thing; a former SOO Greyhound. Leafs Nation was up in arms when we acquired an injury plagued goalie for only $312,500 less then it would have cost to keep our beloved Soupy. Dubas took a gamble on a slightly cheaper 28 year old goalie with an injury history & 2 cup rings for the next two seasons, opposed to a 31 year old goalie with an injury history & no playoff success for five seasons. When you read it like that (and witness how this year has played out for Soup) it's hard to argue that this wasn't the best decision for the Leafs going forward. A small insight into this choice that may be over looked is that Murray's contract is set to expire the same day a potential Auston Matthews extension is set to kick in, Dubas' planning ahead has allowed him to have a potential 4.6 million dollars coming off the books at a crucial moment for the franchise instead of a 5 million dollar anchor that has become Campbell's contract. Although the injury bug has plagued Murray a bit this year, when healthy and playing he's put up league average numbers with a 2.92 GAA & .903 SV% through 22 games. Murray returned from an ankle injury after the Leafs deadline overhaul on March 4th, and proceeded to struggle against the high volatile offence of the Oilers and then a desperate come back for a Sabres team chasing a wildcard spot. Murray showed some resilience in the Battle of Ontario matchup this weekend where despite allowing 4 goals to his former club, he managed to make 48 saves and had a .923 SV%. Matt's return from the IR has been shakey, but a strong outing and a big 2 points against the Sens is hopefully the step in the right direction he needs to prepare for the playoffs. Although I have Murray starting on the bench for game 1 of the playoffs, having a guy who has not only been a part of a successful tandem situation in the playoffs but has also been the goalie tasked to shut the door for San Jose and Nashville's cup aspirations shows that the pressure of the playoffs is not something that hinders Murray. The kid who grew up in Thunder Bay Ontario is now with his childhood team and looking to help them exercise their playoffs demons.

At this point in time I don't know how the net couldn't belong to Ilya Samsonov come game 1 (barring injury). The 26 year old RFA goalie was not qualified by the Washington Capitals and went into free agency looking for a new home. The signing of Sammy helped relax the nerves of Leaf Fans knowing we didn't have all our eggs in the Matt Murray basket, but the question of "who will be the Leafs starter come game 1 of the playoffs" began the second Samsonov's signings was announced on July 13th, 2022. Ilya has done more than enough to hold sole claim of the crease as of now, Sammy is in the middle of a career season with a 2.35 GAA & .917 SV% in 35 games. Those stats may not jump out at you, as many would assume the Russian goaltender the Leafs will potentially be matched up against is in the midst of another Vezina calibre year. That is in fact not the case, as of this publishing, Andrei Vasilevskiy is currently sitting with a 2.67 GAA & .914 SV% through his 52 games (Although playoff Vasi is a different beast). The edge come playoff time may come down to home ice advantage in this collision between Atlantic powerhouses. If the Leafs can secure home ice in the post season, Sammy will have an undeniable edge over his fellow countryman. At home this season Samsonov has been lights out, through his 22 home games he holds a record of 18-2-2 and elite stats (1.95 GAA & .929 SV%). Vasilevskiy on the other hand is sitting 13-11-0 on the road with average stats (2.75 GAA & .913 SV%). 

It is hard to find comfort in these numbers as come playoff time the Tampa Bay net minder is seemingly able to flip a switch and become unbeatable, as he as been able to help bring his club to 3 cup finals in a row and secure the cup in 2 of them. Through these 3 seasons Vasi has put up a stat line worthy of an audible gasp (2.09 GAA, .928 SV% & 7 Shutouts). One factor to consider is the potential fatigue that 3 Stanley Cup final appearances may have had on the Lightning and their superstar net minder, Vasilevskiy has played an additional 71 games over this time and the wear and tear of 3 short off seasons and almost an extra regular season worth of games could catch up to the former Conn Smythe trophy winner. Samsonov on the other hand has had little to no playoff experience/success as a member of a Capitals team that is holding off on a proper rebuild while Ovechkin chases Gretzky's goal scoring record. In 8 playoff games Sammy has a 1-6 record with a pedestrian 2.98 GAA & .907 SV%, as said before Samsonov is in  the middle of a career season with the Leafs and hopefully he's able to continue on that track through the post season. Samsonov has been on a tear this week where he went undefeated in regulation before dropping the extra point in a shootout against the reigning cup champions the Colorado Avalanche despite a .966 SV% then posting a .941 SV% for the Toronto St. Pats for a St. Patty's Day victory over the Metropolitan Division leading Hurricanes. Regardless of the results of this post season, the Leafs currently hold Ilya Samsonov's RFA rights, and i'd personally be shocked if the former 22nd overall pick wasn't brought back in the offseason. 

As the runway towards round one becomes shorter and shorter I would be shocked to not see Sammy in the crease for game one (especially at home), But if Samsonov were to falter in any way, shape or form. The buds can possibly experience a return to form for Matt Murray as he steals the crease and takes Leafs  nation on a deep play off run. With all that said, I personally couldn't care less on which of these 4 men get us over the hump. Whether it be Kallgren or Woll making their NHL post season debuts, A Matt Murray comeback story or the original game 1 starter taking us on a playoff run. This will be a franchise deciding year for the Toronto Maple Leafs, hopefully this year Leaf Nation can finally get past that 1st round boogeyman and in the words of Ilya Samsonov finally " Have some Smile" when looking back on a
season.