The Winds of Change

The Winds of Change

 

In Recent years the Toronto Maple Leafs Hockey club has functioned in a manner deemed unfit for playoff hockey. Over these last 2 weeks leading up to the March 3rd trade deadline, Kyle Dubas and his staff have brought the winds of change and blown a few of our beloved Leafs away. There are very few in the media or fanbase who have been able to criticize what a phenomenal job the Leafs management staff has done, it's hard to argue that this team isn't inherently more prepared to lock horns with a stacked Tampa team in the first round. This Leafs roster is well equipped to grind down their opponents in the playoffs and match the depths of several eastern conference juggernauts. As exciting as all these new additions are to a rabid fanbase starved of playoff success, we should reflect on those pieces we had to sacrifice.

 

What we gave away:

 

The Swede Memories of Rasmus Sandin

The start of an absolute whirlwind day saw a young defenceman who a majority of the fanbase loved, be shipped out to the Washington Capitals for Boston's 2023 1st Round Pick and D Erik Gustafsson. The heart-breaking parts of trades like these is seeing someone who was beloved by his teammates have to say goodbye to his hockey family unexpectedly (and goodbye to a team that may actually be a potential contender). Rasmus was a 29th Overall pick who did nothing but grow his game and mature year by year. It feels like yesterday we watched him, and fellow Leafs D man Timothy Liljegren play for Sweden as a pair at the World Juniors. As their skills developed, they continued to rise through the Leafs ranks together until they both found themselves as full time NHLers. Many in this fanbase (Myself included) would have had Tim and Rasmus as a future top 4 pairing for years to come on this team. Sadly, dreams don't often come to fruition as the Sandin era has come to an end in Toronto. Sandin has every tool to be an elite top end defence in the NHL one day. He has the opportunity in Washington, now we just wait and see if he seizes it. Since the trade Sandin has went on to put up 1 goal and 4 assists through 2 games with Capitals while averaging over 21 minutes a night. Sandin is the perfect fit on a Caps team missing an integral part of their back end. When John Carlson Leaves a gaping hole in your D core; Enter Sandman.

 

The Emotional Exhaustion of Pierre Engvall

One of the most infuriating players to have played for this team in recent years was Pierre Engvall. This was a player who was viewed as a potential "5 tool" player after his time with the Marlies. Pierre is a 6'4" Left wing/centre possessing an impressive size and reach often desirable for NHL players. He was one of the fastest skaters on the roster this season and would show flashes of high calibre skills between puck handling and shooting, usually getting a shockingly beautiful goal every month or two. Offences flashes aside Engvall was a consistent penalty killer for the Leafs. So, after hearing about a 6-foot 4 Wing/Centre who is an effective penalty killer with a high top-end speed and flashes of high-end skill to match sounds like the kind of player Tampa Bay finds every year, so what was the problem? For someone with all these attributes he never put it together for more than a 2-3 game stretch. This led to him becoming expendable come playoff time as he hasn't shown the ability to consistently chip in depth scoring or use his impressive mix of size and skill to be a relentless forechecker. Within an hour of fellow Swede Rasmus Sandin leaving the ice, Pierre was informed he was the next casualty of the roster overhaul in preparation for playoffs. He was traded to the New York Islanders for 2024 3rd round pick. Many fans felt this move would be addition by subtraction. I don't think many fans will miss the uneventful shifts Engvall often took for the Leafs, but as a fan base we should always be worried about letting a player like this go. He starts his career in Long Island on the top line along with fellow recently acquired Islander Bo Horvat. This is undoubtedly the best opportunity Engvall has had in his career, maybe an extended look as a top 6 guy will have him finally piece it all together and become a consistent contributor at the NHL level. In his debut game for the Isles he went pointless and even for plus/minus through 17 minutes of ice time followed by a minus 2 performance against Buffalo. It is a long shot that the trading of Pierre Engvall comes back to haunt the Leafs, but letting a player with so many tools go has come back to bite this franchise before. 

 

The Fringe Guys 

Going into the trade deadline, if I had told you that Dryden Hunt and Joey Anderson would both be moved in trades that would heavily impact the Leafs playoff chances this year and for the foreseeable future; you'd have thought I was crazy. You were half right; The Dryden Hunt trade definitely didn't move the needle. Hunt came to the Maple Leafs earlier this year as a branch of the Mason Marchment trade tree (Denis Malgin from Toronto to Colorado for Hunt). Dryden bounced around the NHL quite a bit this year through waivers. He started his year on the Rangers before being claimed off waivers by the Avalanche then traded to the Leafs. Hunts sample size in Toronto at the NHL level was small, he played 9 games with the big club chipping in 1 goal with 9 PIMs. It was on deadline day Dubas made his only trade of that day sending Dryden to the Calgary Flames for Radim Zohorna. This trade is much more of an AHL transaction as Hunt fell casualty to the American Hockey Leagues 5 Veteran limit rule. Only time will tell if this trade is worth mentioning in the future or if we  finally have won the Marchment trade. Now that we've done the house keeping on the minor of the fringe players moved let's talk about Joey Anderson. Joey found his way to Toronto in the Andreas Johnsson trade in 2020. Anderson was always a serviceable call up when needed. He provided an energy and forechecking ability serviceable for the NHL but was never given an extended look with Toronto due to a surplus of NHL calibre depth forwards. As the Buds continued to alter their identity for the playoffs, Joey was shipped off to the Chicago Blackhawks along with picks and a prospect, to bring a solid top 4 defender in Jake McCabe and bottom 6 forward who also plays with a certain amount of intensity and speed with Sam Lafferty. With an absolutely decimated roster after they sold everything that wasn't nailed down, Joey Anderson is in a prime position to get an extended look at the NHL level with the Hawks. Through his first 5 games in the windy city Anderson has put up no points and is a minus 2, this is not the ideal start to Anderson's extended NHL look, but with the Hawks actively tanking in hopes of getting a franchise changing player in Connor Bedard, Andersons slump off the bat is more favourable for Chicago. 

 

The Mystery boxes

When I say mystery boxes, I am referring to any picks or prospects who haven't gotten an extended look at the NHL level. These are the things Dubas used the most this year to bolster his team’s chances; This deadline the Leafs moved out our 2023 1st & 3rd, 2024 2nd, 2025 1st & 4th and 2026 2nd as well as an additional 3rd that was acquired for Engvall. All together the Leafs dealt 7 draft picks over the next 4 years. Draft pics are essentially magic beans in the NHL as there is no guarantee that any one of those draft choices ever play a single NHL game, while there is equal risk that some/all of those pics turn into valuable players a future Leafs roster could desperately need in a few years. Until these picks are turned into serviceable NHLers, I feel there is no need for the unnecessary fear within the fanbase at this time as the dread of round 1 should be the next item on our list of worries. As for the slightly further along pieces the Leafs shipped out 3 prospects; Pavel Gogolev, Mikhail Abramov and Adam Gaudette in order of low too high for potential. Gogolev went to Chicago in the Joey Anderson trade, in all honesty you could have told me this was a randomly generated player in an NHL game, and you would have had me hook, line and sinker. This was a player not known by a majority of the fan base as he struggled to stay at the AHL level and has had a majority of his success in the ECHL, putting up 21 goals and 27 Assists in 33 games with the Newfoundland Growlers this season. The odds of this player taking massive steps and making an impact in the NHL are low, so this is the lowest risk of the 3 prospects shipped out by far. Abramov is probably a name you've heard and wondered about in the Leafs system, at the Age of 21 he is the youngest of the 3 prospects traded away and may still have the highest ceiling based on his age. While putting up over a point a game in all but one season between CSKA development teams and Victoriaville Tigers of the QMJHL Mikhail certainly seemed ready to contribute at the pro level.  After such an impressive lead, up to the AHL he finds himself under his projected stats at about a half a point a game player through his 1st season and a half. Maybe a change of scenery and a new opportunity is what’s needed to put Abramov back on his original career trajectory. Calling a 26-year-old with 7 years (where he played 5 or more NHL games) a prospect is generous I suppose. Adam Gaudette broke into the NHL in 2017-18 with the Vancouver Canucks, he spent 4 years on the west coast before making a 2 year stop in Chicago prior to his final NHL season with Ottawa in 2021-22. Gaudette has 70 points in 216 NHL games and was definitely one of the Marlies who was "Next up" when it came to guys coming to the NHL. Abramov and Gaudette were traded to the Blues for former Selke and Conn Smyth winner Ryan O'Reilly and relentless forechecker Noel Accari.

 

What we brought in:

 

The Big Fish

Ryan O'Reilly to Toronto is referred to as the biggest deadline acquisition for the Leafs since they acquired star defenceman Brian Leetch 2004. Toronto has made a habit of bringing in other teams’ captains as they leave their primes and approach unrestricted free agency in recent years (Nick Foligno 2021 & Mark Giordano 2022). Trading for O'Reilly is not the Leafs bringing in a big-name player in who is a shell of him former self. O'Reilly was a major piece of the engine that won the Blues the Stanley Cup in 2019. As St. Louis decided it was time to sell off assets and start a re-tool, Kyle Dubas jumped at the chance to bring in the Blues captain. This is a top end 200-foot player, Ryan possesses an elite defensive stick and a large frame that makes him a nightmare for attacking players 5 0n 5 in the Leafs End. He blocks the open ice with his positioning and stick work when in the defensive zone along with a strong frame and large body to battle with on the boards for loose pucks. O'Reilly can be that player who not only puts up points for the Leafs, but actively prevents the other team from scoring at even strength. Along with all the skills he brings on the ice, he brings experience, intensity, accountability and a winning pedigree to a playoffs success starved roster. If O'Reilly's work ethic is able to rub off on and inspire members of the team to show up in big game moments (Presumably game 7 of round 1 against the Lightning) this trade will be looked back on as Dubas' crown jewel acquisition that got the Leafs over a hump and hopefully on a deep cup run. The Leafs were privileged to a small sample size of Ryan O'Reilly where he put up 3 goals and 2 assists through 8 games with the Leafs before a stray Auston Matthews shot caught him in the hand and put him on LTIR with a broken finger. O'Reilly is expected to be back in time for round 1, but we will have to wait and see how Ryan comes back and the impact he will have in the opening round.

 

The Sand Paper

One thing Dubas worked hard to change about the Leafs this deadline was making them a harder team to play against. Obviously matching Toronto's top end skill is hard for any team, but it was always the depth that seems to be the issue that's hindered this team’s playoff success. The Leafs often deployed a 3rd/4th line that didn't contribute much offence come playoff time, now depth scoring is always a bonus it is not the only way for your bottom 6 to be effective. Leaf fans have witnessed depth players in previous playoff matchups finish checks and put our stars off their game. Not only is this a good way to frustrate the oppositions best players and try and throw them off so you can steal a game, but by utilizing a relentless forecheck and finishing hits they'll wear the players down through a 7-game series. The Leafs brought in a 3 headed monster in Noel Accari, Sam Lafferty and Jake McCabe. Before the acquisition of these 3 players the Leafs hit leaders where 13th forward Zack Aston-Reese with 125, Justin Holl with 123 and Captain John Tavares with 94. The lowest hits for these newly acquired players is the 1st of the former 2 Blackhawks Sam Lafferty with 96 hits; this depth forward can play both centre and wing and is a very effective penalty killer (he is currently tied for 1st in the league for short-handed goals with 4). This is not a flashy piece that Toronto acquired but it’s the type of player who can turn the momentum of a game in the playoffs. Since joining the Leafs Laff has 1 assist in his first 4 games and has provided a new look and intensity to the bottom 6, the lines are beginning to gel for the playoffs. The 2nd former Blackhawk is also 2nd of these 3 acquisitions for hits, Jake McCabe is a tough and reliable defender who has managed to put up some respectable defensive numbers despite being on the Jack Eichel era Buffalo Sabres where now teammate Ryan O'Reilly "Lost his love for playing hockey" and then a Chicago Blackhawks team who went from on the decline to full on rebuild. This year will be the first time McCabe touches the ice in the NHL playoffs and the soon to be post season debutant is looking to add to his 125 hits and grind down the opposition for the Buds. Since joining the Leafs McCabe has not been on the ice for an even strength goal against through his first 4 games. The biggest benefit of bringing these two particular players in is that they both have term beyond this season. Laff has another year after this while Caber will be around for another 2. Acquiring these 2 players don't only make the Leafs better now, they're set up to grow with these two for the foreseeable future. The sleeper part of the O'Reilly trade is definitely Noel Accari, this player spent 2 years with the Boston Bruins beating the Leafs in back to back years in the first round. He is the type of player who wears you down over time, with 197 hits this season the cookie monster never passes the opportunity to finish his checks. Since joining the Buds, he is slowly becoming a fan favourite as he is absolutely relentless on forechecking and hitting. This injection of energy is certainly changing the identity the Leafs depth and Noel has fit perfectly since arriving in Toronto. Like Ryan O'Reilly, Accari will be an UFA come seasons end, but hopefully the Leafs can retain one or both of these former Blues and Dubas should make it a priority if the price tag is appropriate. 

 

The Prodigal Son returns 

It feels like yesterday that the Toronto Maple Leafs GM Cliff Fletcher traded away the teams 7th overall pick plus a conditional package of 2 more picks for the New York Islanders 5th overall selection. The Leafs used this pick to bring in Saskatoon native Luke Schenn. This pick was referred to as a franchise changing player and the fanbase was ecstatic to bring in our presumed future. But Luke fell victim to the pre Shanaplan Leafs, Schenn was an asset that was heavily mismanaged in Toronto. After his selection the Leafs were firmly committed to a rebuild at the time but chose to rush the 18-year-old into the lineup that following year opposed to letting him head back to junior and dominate the western hockey league. Schenn played four seasons in Toronto where he had his development inadvertently sabotaged. Aside from the Leafs choosing to have their new corner stone piece be a part of all the losing the late 2000's Leafs did, they also advised him to continue to put on weight and get stronger in order to try and create the modern Scott Stevens. It was around this time where the game began to evolve into a high-speed affair, the league began to covet small, fast and highly skilled players opposed to the larger tougher players of the past. This decision made an already not very fleet of foot player even slower, becoming the downfall of Luke Schenn in Toronto. The summer of 2012 saw the Leafs flip Schenn to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for fellow struggling prospect James Van Riemsdyk. This trade was seen as a hockey trade giving two struggling players a fresh situation. Leafs fans can look back on that trade with fond memories as all signs point to Toronto winning this trade. JVR spent 6 years in the Leafs top 6 posting a very impressive Leafs career with 154 goals and 140 assists in 413 games before returning to the Flyers. Schenn on the other hand didn't flourish with his new team as much as he'd have hoped, His time in Philly was only 3 and a half years where he put up 43 points in 213 games. Following his departure from the city of brotherly love Schenn became an NHL depth defence journeyman. Luke spent the next 4 years on 4 teams (LA, Arizona, Anaheim and Vancouver) before he got his first demotion to the AHL. It seemed the former top 5 pick's career was on the verge of fizzling out after 12 seasons in the league. In the 2019-20 campaign Schenn split time in the AHL & NHL between Syracuse and Tampa Bay, this was the spark that reignited Luke's career.  While in a depth role with the Lightning Schenn spent 2 seasons down south capturing back to back Stanley cups. As Tampa continued to win they had to slowly ship out more pieces from those championship rosters in order to keep their core together as much as possible, Schenn got the opportunity to return to the Vancouver Canucks and continue his career resurgence from 2021-23 before the team that drafted him 15 years earlier traded a 3rd round selection in 2023 to bring him home. Schenn not only brings back a certain nostalgia of the player we drafted but brings more of the "Hard to play against" energy. With all the emphasis for the sandpaper guys coming in and basically taking over the top 5 for the teams hit leaders, Schenn brings an NHL leading 265 hits this season. It's unfair to expect Luke to come in and fulfil any of the "prophecies" from that day on the draft floor, but Schenn returning home to help the Maple Leafs slay their demons in the 1st round will be the ultimate redemption arc for the human eraser. 

 

 

 

The offence from the backend

Many members of the Leaf fan base were less than enthusiastic about bringing in offensive defenceman Erik Gustafsson. It wasn't the player at all that was the problem, Gus' 38 points this year had him join the team and instantly become Toronto's highest scoring defenceman. So why the resistance from the fan base? The answer is simple, it was the price. Many fans were underwhelmed that Gustafsson and the Bruins 2023 1st Rounder were all they got for fan favourite Rasmus Sandin. Many sat at home with bated breath waiting for Dubas to package the newly acquired assets for another blockbuster, but that trade never came. This is a player the fans would be very intrigued by if it were the return of the Pierre Engvall trade or was the return in a Justin Holl swap. So, what is this asset the Leafs now have? Simply put, it is Morgan Rielly insurance. Morgan has been a consistent contributor since joining the Leafs full time in 2013-14, he's never put up less than 27 points in a year while eclipsing 50 points 3 times. Statistically this is an on-par year for Mo, but the concern is about his defensive play. Rielly suffered an injury after an inadvertent collision in a game against the Islanders earlier this year. While Morgan was out the team's collection of depth defenceman not only stepped in to stop the bleeding but played a very effective defensive system allowing the Leafs to go 12-2-1 in his absence. Since his return Morgan has looked out of place more often than not. He's been okay on the stat sheet, but his play and decision making aren't up to the normal standard Mo usually provides. This is where Gustafsson comes into play, if you are looking for a suitable replacement come playoff time if Rielly gets hurt or his struggles continue to worsen. Gus is in the midst of a great statistical season and is a player who hit the 60-point mark 7 years ago on a still relevant Chicago squad before being bounced between a few struggling clubs. Gustafsson had undoubtedly the worst debut of all the new Leafs, while quarterbacking the second power play unit a puck heading up the boards jumped his stick and put Blake Coleman in behind him on a short-handed breakaway for a goal. The Gustafsson era in Toronto is up for debate already, but if he can become a catalyst to spark one of the power play units come playoff time, he will quickly become a fan favourite.

 

The spare change

These pieces are picks or prospects likely too far away from helping Toronto in the immediate future. The quick rundown on the picks acquired (Excluding the one flipped for Luke Schenn) were the Bruins 2023 1st Round pick, and Chicago's 2024 & 2025 5th round picks. The Leafs also brought back 2 prospects; Josh Pillar and Radim Zohorna. Pillar is a 21-year-old right wing currently playing for the Saskatoon Blades in the WHL. Pillar appears to be just shy of a point a game player in his previous years in the W so only time will tell how he fairs when he makes the jump to the pro level. The final piece to the Leafs deadline is Radim Zohorna. Radim made his North American pro debut with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2020-21. While relatively unknown Zohorna has 4 goals and 6 assists through 33 NHL games over 3 seasons. At the AHL level Radim is over a half a point per game clip (25 goals 36 assists in 92 games) Who knows if Zohorna is ever an option for the Leafs in the future, but he's an adequate replacement for the losses of Anderson, Abramov and Gaudette this deadline. 

 

The Leafs record since the first trade domino fell is 6-3-0 with an impressive performance against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday. At the time of this O'Reilly was recently put onto IR (Approximately a 4 week return timeline), Schenn remains in Vancouver awaiting the birth of his 3rd child and John Tavares is not feeling 100% following some questionable shots the Canucks took on Saturday and he was held out of Tuesdays game. Leafs Nation anxiously awaits the post season so they can witness what Kyle Dubas' latest iteration of this roster can do against the potential dynasty that is the Tampa Bay Lightning in round 1.