The Story Line
The Toronto Maple Leafs struck gold once before with a highly touted prospect from Arizona, joining their team and making an immediate impact. Auston Matthews was the shot of adrenaline the franchise needed to turn things around. He joined the Leafs with fellow top prospect forwards Mitch Marner & William Nylander in 2017. The roster was chalked full of recent Marlies graduates and players developed within their system from the pre "Shannaplan" Era. Auston walked into the league and put up the unforgettable 4 goal debut with a young up and coming roster. Fast forward 6 first round exits later, This Leafs roster only has 5 players (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly & Holl) remaining from Matthews' debut roster. The Roster today is loaded with a mix of skill, speed and grit. They have superstar players, a strong supporting cast of playoff style character guys in their forward group and arguably the deepest defensive group they have had in the Matthews era. Why is any of this relevant? It's relevant because the Leafs are preparing to bring another Arizona native into the mix in preparation for this year’s playoffs and are optimistic that he can step in and contribute immediately like his fellow Arizonan. Matthew Knies has been the biggest question mark for the Leafs since the trade deadline last year, his status for this upcoming season was up in the air (whether he made the jump to the NHL or remained in the NCAA for another year). With his availability up in the air for last year’s playoffs, Knies name began to swirl in rumours that he would be dealt for immediate help in the playoffs (Notably the Knies plus to Chicago for Hagel & Marc Andre Fleury trade that was nixed). Ultimately Knies chose to return to the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers for one last run at a national championship before making his jump to the pros and Dubas chose to hold on to his top prospect. With the fanbase anxiously waiting for the 20-year-old to join the Leafs, we'll take an in depth look at who Matt is and what he brings to a playoff roster.
In 2021 the Leafs sat patiently through the first round of the NHL entry draft as they waited to see their 1st round pick that had been traded for Nick Foligno be used by the Columbus Blue Jackets to select defenceman Corson Ceulemans. The top end talent taken through the first 4 picks was incredible; Owen Power, Matty Beniers, Mason McTavish and Luke Hughes were selected and 3/4 of them have already made their NHL debut and are key contributors to their respective clubs. From pick number five all the way through to pick fifty-six there were very few players who have made the leap and or had much buzz around their development, that was until the 62nd best prospect as per Bob McKenzie's final draft ranking jumped 5 spots and was selected 57th overall by Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Leading up to this selection Knies spent two full seasons with the Tri-City Storm of USHL, Knies put up nearly a point a game in each season with a career total of 87 points in 88 games. After his selection Knies joined U. of Minnesota and continued his consistent scoring pace for 33 points in a 33 game rookie season, only to be followed by 41 points in 36 games the following year. Knies appears to be near a point a game guy at whatever level he's played thus far, which is something Dubas and Leafs management are hoping continues as he makes his jump to the NHL.
NCAA Stat Comparisons
So, where does Knies fall in comparison to some former NCAA D1 comparables?
The obvious standout was Jack Eichel, he managed to put up unbelievable numbers in the NCAA as an 18-year-old which is why there was ever even a question between Eichel & McDavid for 1st overall. Knies managed to produce at a similar pace to these recent NCAA stars at this age, which is an encouraging start as all 4 players went on to become full time NHLers and 3 of them would be considered league superstars.
As you can see for all the players who returned to the NCAA following their rookie season, they managed to take a significant step in their point production. While Knies did improve on his rookie output, his comparables almost all improved by 20 points where Knies only improved by 8 points the following year. It's would appear that Knies isn't currently pulling his weight in his sophomore season, but there is a perfectly reasonable explanation for that. He's not the same small, fast and skilled forwards who creates his offence with an elite shot from the perimeter, he is a power forward.
The Player Archetype
Knies does possess a high hockey IQ, creativity and a great set of hands to match; But Knies' game isn't remotely close to any of the NCAA comparables. Knies is 6-foot-3 and 205lbs, and unlike other/former Leafs, he is very strong on the puck and not afraid to use his size. Knies knows he has a larger build compared to his competition and has exploited his frame for elite puck protection. Matthew has a tendency to hold the puck while in the offensive zone with the intention of baiting in a defender, once the defender attempts to take the puck, Knies quickly turns his back to the incoming defenceman in order to shield the puck and either open more ice for his line mates or create a lane to the front of the net. Once he's engaged the defender and he sees the lane he created, he lowers his shoulder towards the defender, uses his hand/forearm & his lead leg to attack the space and keep the puck away from defensive poke checks. Knies is more than willing to take the puck to the dirty areas himself and create scramble chances in the crease for his teammates. Knies isn't one for being a part of a cycle around the edges in the offensive zone, he's the one who ends the cycle and attacks the middle of the ice that his teammates created in an attempt to manufacture a scoring chance. When Knies is looking to get possession of the puck he's not the guy who's going to run someone through the boards, he tends to lead with his stick attempting to steal the puck before using his frame to further separate the defender from it. Unlike most power forwards who would steal the puck and send it into an open area or corner for teammates to get to, Matthew looks to make a skill play to generate offence off the turnover. Mitch Brown of Eliteprospects.com classifies Knies puck skills as "No Risk Flash" meaning Knies never attempts to be too pretty with the puck in situations which could lead to a high danger chance the other way. Coming out of the USHL, he had a habit to try and force offence off of the rush opposed to now where he elects to cut back after gaining zone entry, use his puck protection skills and awaits support from his team. Matt has shown great "off the puck offence" getting to open areas to provide options for his line mates. Now for all these positives he's shown at the NCAA level there are some flaws in his game, he has the habit of not shoulder checking and throwing blind passes that his teammates miss and as most bigger hockey players his skating can use some polishing but he does have average foot speed.
NHL Comparable
So, is there a comparable former NCAA forward who plays a similar style to Matthew Knies who has excelled at the NHL level? Yes, former Boston College winger Chris Kreider put up very similar numbers as a 20-year-old in college. Kreider didn't become a point per game player until his final year in Boston 2011-2012 where he put up 45 points in 44 games before joining the New York Rangers on a playoff run. Kreider chipped in 6 points in 18 playoff games before falling to the New Jersey Devils in the Eastern Conference Finals. Kreider has been a major piece of the Rangers since then, becoming a consistent 20 goal scorer before a breakout 52 goals in 2021-2022. So, besides production & situation, what similarities do these 2 players have in common? Like Kreider, Knies' office is the top of the crease, he sets up shop as the net front presence for Minnesota's power play, applying his large frame to take away the goalie's vision and is prepared to tip home and or put any rebounds back towards the net. If Knies has a career even remotely similar to Kreider, the Leafs may have selected one of the biggest steals of that year’s draft.
Expectations?
Matthew Knies will join the Leafs and be the second coming of Eric Lindros on route to the Leafs Capturing the Stanl … Sorry was that too optimistic? It would be completely unfair to put the burden on ending the Leafs playoff drought on the shoulders of a 20-year-old rookie, But Knies does add several things that the current roster lacks. You’re adding a player who uses his size to his advantage (Unlike the Pierre Engvall’s & Frederik Gauthier’s of the past), He is a net front presence who utilizes screens and deflections to generate offence & “Playoff Style” goals and does some of his finest work in the dirty areas. I wouldn’t expect Knies join Toronto and make an impact the way Matthews, Marner or Nylander did as his style is completely different. But the contribution of Knies may be closer to a Connor Brown or Zach Hyman, not as flashy right out of the gate but is a solid depth contributor who slowly rounds out his game as he progresses further up the lineup. If he is able to score at a similar clip like his NHL comparison Chris Krieder did when making the jump from NCAA, seeing Knies be a 0.33 point per game player throughout the post season would keep him on the same scoring pace as Krieder.
Potential Forward Lines w/ Knies
Jarnkrok – Matthews – Marner
Knies* – Tavares – Nylander
Bunting - O’Reilly – Accari
Lafferty – Kampf – Kerfoot/Aston-Reese
Extras: Simmonds, McMann, Steeves
*If Knies doesn’t play; Kerfoot is 3rd line LW & Bunting is 2nd line LW
NCAA Update
Game 1: Thursday March 23rd, Knies and the Minnesota Golden Gophers took on the Canisius Griffins in the first round of the D1 Men’s Ice Hockey Championship & Frozen Four tournament. Early in the second period Canisius took a 2-1 lead and appeared to have the top ranked Gophers on their heals before Minnesota opened the flood gates and scored the next 8 goals for a 9-2 final score. Knies did go pointless in the game but was on the ice acting as a screen on the power play for 3 separate goals. Knies’ impact sometimes goes beyond the stat sheet and he contributes for his team in an underappreciated manner. During the broadcast of this game the announcers referred to Matthew Knies as “The most complete player in college hockey”.
Game 2: On Saturday March 25th, The Golden Gophers match up against inner state rivals Minnesota St. Cloud. In a matchup determining who advances to face Boston University in the Frozen Four, Knies and his Gophers wouldn’t be denied. Knies again went pointless in the 4-1 victory over but was +3 in the contest and screening the goalie on 2 of those goals. Knies is showing that winning the national championship means more to him than being the hero. Hopefully this un-selfish win as a team mentality is present once he joins the Leafs.
Game 3: Wednesday April 5th was the beginning of the NCAA Frozen Four in Tampa, Florida. Knies and the Golden Gophers match up against Boston University for their chance to head to the National Championship. After going down 1-0 early in the first the Gophers struck back to knot the game at one a piece, As per usual Knies was in his office at the top of the blue paint screening the Boston net minder for the tying goal. Despite not showing up on the score sheet, Knies was very noticeable throughout the game often driving play. The Gophers took the game with a 6-2 final to matchup against #2 ranked Quinnipiac.
Game 4 (NCAA Finals): The end to Knies' college career certainly didn't go to plan. Knies and his squad had their eyes on a National championship and sadly fell short in Overtime. Minnesota tried to hold onto a 2-1 lead late in the contest before Quinnipiac pushed for the tying goal and forced overtime. Knies didn't stand out much in this game positively or negatively, but despite the lack of production Matthew was a key part to the Gophers season and big reason they made it this far.
The day after the NCAA Championship loss, Knies inked a $925,000 3-year entry level contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Knies will be joining the club for the remaining 3 regular season games in preparation for the post season matchup with Tampa Bay. It's not fair to put the pressure of being our playoff saviour on a 20-year old kid. Knies is a valuable piece to add to an already deep Leafs forward group. Since the loss Saturday is most likely fresh in his mind, he (like all his new teammates lived last year) has already experienced heart breaking loses in Amalie arena and will be doing everything in their power to prevent it from happening again.
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