With a Leaf victory over Ottawa and 2 points for Tampa on Saturday. The Leafs have officially clinched their matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning for the second straight season. Tampa has been the juggernaut of the NHL over the past 3 seasons, and this has led them to the cup final in each of those seasons. The rest of the games in the regular season simply feel like a formality, this is the lull in the year where both Toronto and Tampa can use the remainder of their games as a "Pre-season" to fine tune their rosters for game 1. With the matchup finally decided (Other than home ice) we will take an in-depth look at the matchup between these two Atlantic powerhouses and see how they match up this post season compared to the last.
The flat cap has seen both Toronto and Tampa loose key players to free agency since the COVID pandemic handcuffed many clubs. After each deep cup run, Tampa was forced to lose key pieces of their team each off season. The summer of 2022 was no different for the Lightning, Tampa was forced to part ways with a massively underrated and a key player to all their playoff success Ondrej Palat. This is a major blow to Tampa as Palat was 2nd for playoff scoring with 21 points in 23 games only being behind Nikita Kucherov. Other than Palat departing Tampa, they started the regular season with a very similar forward group to the one they went into the playoffs with last year, the other notable departures came on the back end with Lighting trading Ryan McDonagh to the Preds for mainly for cap relief and having Jan Rutta sign in Pittsburgh as a free agent. These have been key pieces in the recent Tampa dynasty and are massive losses to arguably one of the deepest teams in the league. Tampa did look to bolster their roster in preparation for this season’s playoffs by shipping out 5 draft pics and Cal Foote for Tanner Jeannot from the Predators. I think it’s fair to say Tampa is still one of the stronger teams in the NHL this season despite the departure of 3 crucial players, but in comparison to last year they have become slightly more vincible.
Notable Players Out:
F Ondej Palat (Signed in New Jersey)
D Ryan McDonagh (Traded to Nashville)
D Jan Rutta (Signed in Pittsburgh)
Notable Players In:
F Tanner Jeannot (Acquired from Nashville @ Trade Deadline)
D Philipe Myers (Acquired from Nashville in Offseason)
D Ian Cole (Signed in Offseason)
F Michael Eyssimont (Acquired from San Jose @ Trade Deadline)
The Leafs were able to have another long off season for reflection after the Lightning sent them home in round 1 of the 2022 playoffs. Dubas and staff had a quiet offseason outside of a complete overhaul in the crease after losing fan favourite goaltender Jack Campbell to the Oilers in free agency. This loss led Dubas to acquire a pair of new goalies via free agency and trade (for a full breakdown of the goaltending carousel (https://takeitorleafit67.blogspot.com/2023/03/conclusions-for-crowded-crease.html). The Leafs lost a few more depth players, most notable being Ilya Mikheyev in free agency. The Leafs big offseason acquisition was Calle Jarnkrok signing with buds, I personally have been a big fan of "The Iron Hook" since his time in Nashville and was happy to see him join the Leafs despite him being a better version of Alex Kerfoot. The real Impact that tipped the scales in the Leafs favour for this year’s playoffs was the aggressive roster management at the deadline bringing in 7 new players to the organization (6 of them being locks to be in contention for a playoff roster spot) while only sacrificing 2 of their everyday NHLers. Dubas brought the Leafs both depth and star power at this year’s deadline without moving any major prospects or members of the current roster. The Leafs managed to replace their notable losses in the offseason and then improve their roster at the deadline making them better equipped for a matchup against arguably the best NHL team since the pandemic.
Notable Players Out:
G Jack Campbell (Signed with Oilers in Offseason)
F Colin Blackwell (Signed with Blackhawks in Offseason)
G Peter Mrazek (Traded to Blackhawks @ NHL Draft)
F Ilya Mikheyev (Signed with Vancouver in Offseason)
F Ondrej Kase (Signed with Carolina in Offseason)
D Ilya Lyubushkin (Signed with Buffalo in Offseason)
D Jake Muzzin (Injured in 2022-23 season, likely career ending) *
F Jason Spezza (Retired in Offseason)
F Pierre Engvall (Traded to NY Islanders @ Deadline)
D Rasmus Sandin (Traded to Washington @ Deadline)
Notable Players In:
F Calle Jarnkrok (Signed in Offseason)
F Zack Aston-Reese (Signed in Offseason)
G Matt Murray (Acquired in Offseason from Ottawa)
G Ilya Samsonov (Signed in Offseason)
D Connor Timmins (Acquired from Arizona in season)
F Ryan O'Reilly (Acquired from St. Louis @ Deadline)
F Noel Accari (Acquired from St. Louis @ Deadline)
D Jake McCabe (Acquired from Chicago @ Deadline)
F Sam Lafferty (Acquired from Chicago @ Deadline)
D Erik Gustafson (Acquired from Washington @ Deadline)
D Luke Schenn (Acquired from Vancouver @ Deadline)
F Radim Zohorna* (Acquired from Calgary @ Deadline) player had a strong showing against Ottawa, may be more of an impact than initially thought
Since the end of game 7 last year, it's hard to argue the Leafs roster hasn't gotten much stronger while Tampa has softened. Are the personal changes enough to tip the scales in Toronto’s favour? Or are the Leafs bound to relive the same nightmare they've faced the previous 6 seasons.
Each roster has a plethora of elite talent that are the usual suspects for their team’s playoff success, as well as some intriguing depth options that have the potential to change the momentum of a series or steal a big game. Here's an idea of what these game breakers and sleeper picks can contribute for their team.
Tampa’s Game Breakers
Steven Stamkos - The captain of the Tampa Lightning went first overall in his draft year for a reason, and he's surpassed the expectations placed upon him that day. The former 2-time Rocket Richard trophy winner has shown up in big moments over the last few seasons to help keep Tampa as an NHL powerhouse and back-to-back champions. Stamkos has been an elite goal scorer throughout his career and is potential game breaker every time he's in the offensive zone (especially in his one-timer office at the top of the circle)
Nikita Kucherov - Kuch is an elite player who somehow elevates his game even further in the post season. On route to their 3 Stanley Cup finals appearances, Kucherov has been the leader in playoff scoring in all 3 years. Despite a consistent output on the big stage, Nikita's ability to be a pest is an underrated aspect in his game. Like the Marchand's and Tkachuk’s of the world, Kuch is not at all shy of taking that "sneaky dirty" shot to agitate his opposition. If Kucherov can maintain his production rate against the Leafs in round 1 it could spell disaster for Toronto.
Victor Headman - Some consider Hedman the best defenceman in the NHL over the last 5 plus years. Hedman is a unique combination of size & skill, making him an ideal defenceman for playoff hockey. He is consistently just below a point a game pace in the post season and brings a tough nasty edge into whatever series he's a part of. Hedman has racked up a Conn Smythe, a Norris trophy along with 2 cups in his impressive career and will be looking to add to these accolades at the Leafs expense.
Brayden Point - Point is another crucial member to Tampa's success in recent years, he's over a point a game in his NHL post season career and is looking for a bounce back performance after going down in the first round with an injury last year. Despite a shortened playoff run point still managed to put up 7 points in 9 games last year, and had Tampa had a healthy Point in the Stanley Cup final, there was a strong chance that Tampa achieved the three-peat.
Anthony Cirelli - Unlike his superstar teammates, Cirelli doesn't impact the game on the box score as frequently, his playoff output is around 0.33 points per game. Cirelli tends to score those points in "big moments" and is a very effective shutdown centre often tasked with stifling the offence of the opposing team’s top line. He'll likely be tasked with keeping the Matthews/Tavares line off the score sheet as much as possible.
Brandon Hagel - This was a player the Leafs had looked at last year, but they were eventually out bid by the Lightning. Hagel was brought in as a replacement option for the Gourde-Coleman-Goodrow 3rd line that was so crucial for the back-to-back cups. Hagel was an effective depth player for the Lightning last year as he found his footing in Tampa but only put up 6 points in 23 playoff games. After a full training camp and preseason with the Bolts, Hagel has put up 27 goals this season so far and an impressive 59 points in 77 games. With Hagel more comfortable going into the playoffs this year, a sizeable increase to his playoff scoring is likely on the horizon.
Andrei Vasilevskiy - In my opinion Vasilevskiy is undoubtably the best goalie in the NHL. This is an elite goalie who flips a switch in the post season and was nearly unbeatable for 3 straight post seasons. This player doesn't need a long breakdown or a deep dive into his stats, this is a player who thrives under pressure. If the fatigue of 3 cup runs hasn't worn him down too much, this is the player that scares me the most in a matchup against Tampa.
Tampa’s Sleeper picks:
Nick Paul - Paul is a player who didn't concern me at all going into last year’s playoffs at all. He then proceeded to deliver 2 daggers in game 7 to single handedly beat the Leafs 2-1 in round 1. I never doubted that Nick Paul was a competent NHL player or that he wasn't skilled, simply put I was more concerned with Tampa's top end talent and didn't expect Paul to ruin my year. This year the Leafs should be aware that this player can and will show up in high pressure moments and they must be equal to the task to stop the former Sen.
Tanner Jeannot - Fool Me Once, Shame on You; Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me. Jeannot has all the potential to be this year’s Nick Paul in game 7. Jeannot had an outstanding rookie season in Nashville and had himself right in the middle of the Calder trophy race. The sophomore slump hit Jeannot hard, after putting up 24 goals as a rookie, he's only managed to put up 6 goals between Nashville and Tampa in 74 games. Tampa paid a king’s ransom to get Jeannot, and if it wasn't the Lightning many would consider this one of the worst trades of the deadline. But because it's Tampa and they're playing the Leafs I'm mentally prepared for Tanner's coming out party.
Mikhail Sergachev - This was a player who was a luxury depth piece that was able to thrive in the lower half of the depth chart allowing Hedman and McDonagh to deal with heavy assignments and let Sergachev play his game against easier matchups. With McDonagh gone the Bolts are likely looking for Sergy to step into the top 4 and be a more than adequate replacement. It's sink or swim time for Mikhail, and this is a player who has all the tools to swim.
The 4th Line - Maroon, Bellemare & Perry are all lumped together as that's when they're at their peak. The chemistry and dynamic that these 3 bring to a playoff series can be a nightmare to play against. They are more than capable of chipping in offence, getting under the oppositions skin and answer the bell if they need to fight. It's no guarantee that this line is the thing that sinks the Leafs, but this line can potentially be very dangerous.
Toronto’s Game Breakers
Auston Matthews - Auston is in the midst of a down year due to a hand injury that has plagued him throughout the season. This down year has seen Matthews adjust his game to a more defensive style where he leads all forwards in blocked shots with 86. He has also thrown 75 hits, has a +/- of +32, 37 goals and 78 points. The regular season has never been an issue for Auston, but a strong playoff is needed in order to beat the Bolts.
Mitch Marner - Marner has been on a tear this season, he's set multiple Leafs records for scoring streaks and has been fairly consistent all season. Like Matthews, Marner has never had a problem producing in the regular season. Mitch has had a tendency to be scorching hot or ice cold in the playoffs, one big difference in Marner's game this season is his willingness to take the shot himself opposed to forcing a pass. With Mitch becoming a legitimate scoring threat it makes the dynamic winger even more difficult to defend.
John Tavares - John Tavares has always been decent in the post season for the Leafs, he is often contributing just under a point per game pace since joining his hometown team but to finally lead his club past the first round a JT dominated first round may be required.
William Nylander - The 2022-23 season has been the season Nylander has taken massive steps in showing the league he's one of the NHL's top players. It often felt like Willie was third wheeling Mitch & Auston, but Nylander has been the beacon of consistency until the last few weeks. This slump doesn't worry me too much as Will Ny the Scoring Guy has often been the Leafs best playoff performer. I anticipate another strong Nylander post season, that hopefully leads to an extended playoff run.
Ryan O'Reilly - Acquiring a former Selke and Conn Smythe winner for your playoff matchup is always a positive. O'Reilly has led a team with less top end talent all the way to a cup before and now that he can bounce between a supporting role and a top 6 role. Ryan is going to be a nightmare to match as a third liner which I see being the option to most effectively use O'Reilly. Hopefully this big swing at the deadline leads to a home run in the post season.
Morgan Rielly - The start of the year was one to forget for Mo, after a very pedestrian start to the season Rielly suffered a knee injury that kept him out of the lineup for an extended period. When he finally returned it appeared he was hurting the team with his play more than helping. After Dubas bolstered the blue line at the deadline, Morgan was able to have some of his minutes efficiently sheltered. This shift in Rielly's deployment has allowed him to get back to his form and contribute in a positive way. It's up to Mo to further elevate his play against a strong Tampa team.
Samsonov/Murray - There is a very real possibility that the Leafs playoffs hopes, and Kyle Dubas' job are reliant on the performance of these 2 men. Kyle took a gamble on this tandem and in the regular season it has paid off so far, but as Leaf Nation now knows; the regular season success means nothing. The entire fate of the franchise is centred around one or both men who will need to out duel the league’s best goalie in order to get the Leafs into round 2.
Toronto’s Sleeper Picks:
Michael Bunting - Bunting needs to be the depth scoring that is a difference maker. Bunting needs to be our Nick Paul; he needs to use those aspects of his game that gets under the opponents’ skin to shift the momentum of a series then deliver a dagger in a big moment. It's a lot to ask to show up in a big moment, but we need the Mayor of Scarborough to show up for his childhood team in a big way.
Calle Jarnkrok - A sneaky good signing has started heating up late in the season after a promotion to the top line. The Leafs will need this player to continue his scoring pace that has had him set a career high this year if they want to overcome the Goliath in front of them.
Noel Accari - This is a player who is going to help the Leafs in the same way the Lightning's 4th line can hurt them. He can chip in depth offence, agitate the top guys and grind you down throughout a series. Accari has fit seamlessly since joining Toronto and his finish every check mentality has rubbed off on his line mates. This is a player I can see being a surprising difference maker in the playoffs and I Hope Cookie proves me right.
David Kampf - Kampf has only been a Leaf for a short time, but his ability to be an extremely efficient shut down centre has been a massive boost to the team. Kampf is going to be tasked in a similar way to Anthony Cirelli, chip in offence when you can and limit the oppositions offence as much as possible. Kampf's ability to turn the Penalty Kill into a scoring chance for the Leafs can possibly be a massive momentum shift in a game.
Luke Schenn - I don't think Luke will be the one to score in a big moment. But Schenn won 2 cups as a member of the Lightning. He knows these guys, and hopefully that gives Luke an edge when it comes to defending them. Luke can swing a game with a massive hit or a fight, this is something the Leafs have lacked in previous playoff matchups. Hopefully the "Human Eraser" can erase his former team from this year’s playoff bracket.
2022-23 Season Stats Comparison
Both these teams have had similar season stats with only decimal points being the difference in where they rank, Tampa is ahead of Toronto in Goals for, Power Play% and Shooting%. Regardless of who holds the edge in whichever offensive category you choose to focus on, the overall comparison of these 2 teams’ offences is nearly identical.
When it comes to the defensive metrics of both teams, Toronto has the slight edge in all the major categories. Again, the difference between most of these stats are so minuscule that too much stock shouldn't be put into it.
If one thing is clear regarding the way both teams have played it's that this is basically an evenly matched series, all the analytics go out the window and it will be determined by a combination of goaltending and which team wants it more. Tampa will obviously be the favourite in this clash as they have experienced an incredible amount of playoff success over the past few seasons, they have a world class goaltender that Toronto is tasked with beating. Getting out of the first round has been the Achilles heel for a team loaded with elite talent. Toronto's in for another tough matchup come late April, but if this team can finally slay the first-round demons that have plagued them in the Matthews Era, a long and fruitful playoff run could be a result from their first catalyst of success. It's too early to worry about the Bruins in round 2 or what contender is coming out of the west. It's time to prepare for the final "All or Nothing", "Last Dance", "Do or Die" scenario for the Leafs players, management and fans.
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