Hunt for Home Ice & Post Deadline Grades

As the Leafs started their 5-game road trip Saturday with a 5-4 shootout victory against the Sens, the new week had the buds looking to capture the 8 available points up for grabs to aid their pursuit of clinching home ice come playoff time. Unfortunately, the Leafs went 2 for 4 this week alternating between wins and losses. A tough game in long island had Toronto fall 7-2, in a game where they were out played after an incredible momentum turning save by Sorokin on Gustafsson. The Leafs followed the disappointment against the Isles with an impressive 6-2 bounce back victory over a Florida team fighting for their playoff lives, before preparing for a clash with an eastern conference powerhouse in the Hurricanes. The Hockey Night in Canada matchup in Raleigh had a back and forth, tight checking feel to it where the Canes delivered a dagger late to obtain a lead they wouldn't relinquish. with the Leafs sitting .500 through 4 games they looked to take final game of the trip against a Preds team that is in a playoff race of their own despite selling at the deadline and having their roster decimated by injury. The Leafs put up a dominating 3-2 win with rookie net minder Joseph Woll (Woll was only beaten by a pair of Tyson Barrie point shots that were deflected). The Leafs obtained 4 of a possible 8 points and played very well in 3 of the 4 games. With some scoreboard watching last night the Leafs saw their provincial rivals defeat the Florida Panthers in regulation. This result means the Leafs have officially clinched their playoff spot for the upcoming playoffs, With a 7 point lead and a game in hand Toronto looks to hold on to 2nd in the division over Tampa and secure home ice for the post season. Since the deadline the new look Leafs have a record of 6-4-1 (Ryan O'Reilly has been out in all 11 games) this has a lot of Leafs Nation questioning whether these trades actually improved their roster and this record is the result of lineup juggling/new players finding their roll and gelling, or Dubas over did the trades and this team is inherently more flawed then before? Here is a look at how I feel the newly acquired Leafs have done since dawning the blue and white. 

(In addition to my grades, I had several Leaf Fans give me their rankings on the players to determine an average score in Leafs Nation) *

Ryan O'Reilly: B- (Survey Average B-)

O'Reilly was the big fish for the Leafs at this year’s deadline and was Kyle Dubas' way of showing the Leafs are entering their "Win Now" window despite keeping the prospect cupboards full. The acquisition of Ryan gave the Maple Leafs Center depth they haven't been close to since the trading of Nazem Kadri. Beyond having a gluttony of capable NHL centres, this also give head coach Sheldon Keefe the ability to stack his top 2 lines with superstar talent in a game where the Leafs are trailing. O'Reilly not only brings a consistent amount of production in the post season, but also a recent Selke and Conn Smythe trophy wins as well. Unfortunately, the Leafs can apparently never have nice things (losing Nick Foligno to a back injury before the playoffs in 2020-21) as just 8 games into ROR's Leaf career he suffered a broken finger courtesy of an Auston Matthews' shot. Before this unfortunate injury Ryan was able to put up 3 goals (Against his former team the Buffalo Sabres) and 2 Assists for 5 points in 8 games played. While O'Reilly's tenure in Blue & White may have started with a wobble, he was able to produce at a decent clip before his injury and at the time of this writing is looking to rejoin Toronto soon. With only 9 games to go in the regular season, O’Reilly's real value will show come playoff time as he will hopefully be a big difference maker against a deep Tampa team in the first round and if he can return to his Conn Smythe form from 2018-19 to help take the Leafs on a long awaited deep playoff run this B- can turn on a dime to become an A+. 

 

Noel Accari: A- (Survey Average A-)

The Cookie monster jumped into the Leafs lineup and became an instant impact to the bottom 6. Noel was never a big offensive contributor before a career high 20 goals with the Panthers in 2019-20 but has been a breath of fresh air for what he brings to the teams depth. Accari is just flat out NOT fun to play against, he has shown his relentless forechecking and desire to finish every check he can is adding a grittier element to the Leafs depth. Over the past few playoffs Toronto has relied on the "Top guys" to be the ones driving the offence and be the difference makers in the first round, as their bottom 6 rarely contributes much for offence or being difficult to play against for the opposition. In deciding games, the Maple Leafs are often defeated by the opposition’s depth player’s contributions in key moments. Here are the final games and players who were outside the top 6 scoring on the Leafs (Leafs/Bruins 2018: 7-4 DeBrusk x 2, Heinen) (Leafs/Bruins 2019: 5-1 Nordstrom, Johansson, Kuraly, Coyle) (Leafs/Jackets 2020: 3-0 Foudy) (Leafs/Canadiens 2021: 3-1 Perry) (Leafs/Lightning 2022: 2-1 Paul x 2). Accari is sitting at 13 goals in 71 games split between the Blues and Leafs this season, showing he can be a consistent contributor in a depth role while playing a hard nose game where his intensity rubs off on his line mates. Toronto nearly lost Accari as well in a game against the Hurricanes on St. Patrick’s Day when he took a blind side shot to the head by Jesse Puljujarvi, missing 1 game out of caution. Accari appears to be back, healthy and ready to make an impact for the Leafs in the playoffs. Accari was initially viewed as a "throw in" to the Ryan O’Reilly trade and many fans weren't aware of the value this player carries, he arrived in Toronto and instantly exceeded many fans expectations warranting an A- for his contributions thus far. The only thing I believe standing between Noel and fan favourite status is a contract extension. 

 

Jake McCabe: B (Survey Average B-)

The last time the Leafs won a playoff round they had a McCabe on defence, but Bryan has long since retired. So Dubas decided that Jake was the next best option. Jake McCabe was actually brought in to be the long-term replacement for Jake Muzzin as his career sadly looks to be over after several neck, head and spinal injuries. McCabe brings the physical presence that the D core has been lacking since Muzz's injury as he is not shy about finishing a check but doesn't provide the same offensive punch. Luckily, Toronto is a team assembled to generate most of their offence from the forwards and any offence from the back end is just an added bonus. Since joining the Leafs one day before the trade deadline McCabe has been a utility guy playing with several different partners and hasn't looked out of place, regardless of his blue line buddy. Since joining the Buds, McCabe has chipped in a goal and an assist through 13 games as a Leaf and sitting at +3 in that time. Jake came exactly as advertised; low risk, reliable and physical. Unlike O'Reilly & Accari, McCabe joined the team with the remainder of this season, plus 2 more on his current contract. This means the McCabe era in Toronto is just beginning, leaving plenty of time for the B rating to improve or regress. 

 

Sam Lafferty: C- (Survey Average D+)

Sam Lafferty found his way to Toronto alongside McCabe. Like Jake, Lafferty also comes with term on his contract past this season making him part of the Leafs future. Sam's acquisition is another attempt to improve the bottom 6 for the playoffs. Lafferty is a depth player who knows what he is, he isn't a skilled prospect getting a look on a 3rd or 4th line waiting to crack the top 6. He is another relentless forechecker who adds foot speed to the bottom 6 and finishes his checks like Accari. He is a very efficient penalty killer who can shift the momentum of a PK with a short-handed chance the other way and his versatility allows him to play both wing and center giving the coach a plethora of options when it comes to deployment and line juggling. Lafferty definitely hasn't stepped into the lineup and stole anyone in Leafs Nation's hearts just yet, but the value he adds to our bottom 6 going into the playoffs is an upgrade on the depth we've tried in past series. This player hasn't stood out much since joining the team, only putting up a goal and two assists in 13 games. Regardless of whether he's getting points or not, you know that he'll be aggressive on the forecheck and sound defensively. Hopefully some key contributions in the playoffs help improve Laff from a C-. 

 

Erik Gustafsson: C (Survey Average C)

This player came to the team in a controversial manner. The trade had the fan base against him almost immediately because of what we had given up. Seeing your team trade an up and coming 23-year-old offensive defenceman and cult favourite in the fan base for an older offensive defenceman who has been only slightly more productive this season is truly puzzling. This was a trade that really put the "Win Now" narrative in the limelight, Dubas felt gambling on what Rasmus Sandin could become one day wouldn't help the team get over the hump now. Sandin's last year in Toronto had been a rollercoaster that saw a contract holdout, a lack of opportunity and a rift between Sandin and management. Gustafsson came into a situation less than ideal to start his Leafs career but has done his best to weather the storm and show the value he can provide. Erik joined the team and began to show Leafs Nation what he can add to the lineup, he is more than capable of quarterbacking either of the power play units and he is surprisingly strong on his skates often bouncing forecheckers hits off. Gustafsson gives Keefe the ability to manage Morgan Rielly's load leading up/through the playoffs without sacrificing offensive fire power from the back end. This player like Lafferty has yet to really stand out and wow many in the fanbase but has been an average pickup since joining the Leafs.

 

Luke Schenn: C+ (Survey Average C)

The vibes created from requiring Schenn could be enough by itself to give Schenn an A. He returned home to the team that drafted him and has been a near perfect fit since the trade deadline in his limited minutes. It feels like every game or two "The Human Eraser" claims another victim and attempts to put an opposing player through the boards. As much as Schenn is the feel-good story of the season, it feels unfair to let the redemption arc impact his grade. Luke has been a very quiet and calming force on the back end, sometimes even unnoticeable up until he lays one of his signature checks. Luke seems to always make the safe, simple and almost boring choice constantly which is an identity shift from the Leafs defenceman over the past few years. I feel the lack of ice time and games played by Luke hurts his overall grade, as he does looks solid in his sheltered minutes but there is no evidence this calibre of play continues when he plays north of his usual 10-14 minutes of time on ice. No one should have been expecting Luke to come back and be the top guy they drafted 15 years earlier, but Schenn is back looking to help the Maple Leafs slay their 1^st round demons against the team that made him a two-time Stanley Cup champion. 

 

All these post deadline grades are meant to gauge the success of the new members of the Maple Leafs since their arrival but aren’t the final verdict on what each of these individuals are. A strong or disappointing performance in the post season will carry a lot of weight in the final evaluation of how the Leafs deadline went. The Leafs are in the best position they’ve been in since the Montreal series in the Canadian Division, it’s time for the Leafs and their new members to show up in the big moments and put hope back in the fan base. We are all so scarred by this team, but winning cures all. 

Conclusions for a Crowded Crease

Success in playoffs starts in the crease

As we are in the dog days of the regular season and the playoff picture is all but decided besides home ice, the Leafs will likely be matched up for another 1st round tilt against Tampa Bay. As a fan, these games often feel inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. The only focus within Leafs Nation at the moment is finally getting over their playoff slump and winning a round for the 1st time since 2004. With a majority of the roster already set in stone aside from a few minor tweaks to the game one starting lineup, the one position still creating a debate within the fan base is which goalie will be standing in the crease come puck drop of game 1. The Leafs have 4 options to hold the crease come playoff time and that will be determined through performance and or injury. An in depth look will be taken at the 4 men who  potentially will be involved in clearing this hurdle that has plagued the club the last 6 years. 

To start in the order of potential likelihood, i'll start with the goalie i believe is least likely to start a game in the first round, Erik K
allgren. Erik is a 26 year old Swedish net minder at 6 feet and 200 lbs, he joined the Leafs organization during the 2021-22 season with the Marlies before a string of injuries had him make his NHL debut. He played 14 games that season and added 10 more this season putting up a 3.04 GAA with an .892 SV% , he racked up 11 wins through his NHL career but had no playoff starts as of yet. Kallgren is the least likely to touch playoff ice this season but provides a decent option as the fourth goalie on the depth charts. This is a luxury not many teams have in case the injury bug decimates their crease come playoff time. 

The goalie more likely to get the call from the AHL is 24 year old rookie Joseph Woll. The Dardenne Prairie, Missouri native can best be described as a wild card option for the Buds, as he has only played in 7 NHL games through 2 seasons but managed to put up a surprising 5-2-0 record while boasting a 2.45 GAA and .922 SV%. Despite the small sample size Woll has at the NHL level, Joseph has been putting on a clinic with the Marlies this season. The 2022-2023 AHL All-star has been lights out this season and produced an impressive 12 game winning streak and an overall record of 16-2-0 with a 2.37 GAA and .928 SV%. It is completely unfair to put the weight of a playoff success drought on the back of Woll, but with that being said we've seen in the passed (with a familiar name to be mentioned) and St. Louis Blues rookie Jordan Binnington; sometimes a rookie goalie joins the team around playoff time and goes on a hot streak and the team rides it on a deep playoff run. In a perfect world our number 3 goalie isn't called upon in this years playoffs and the current starting tandem can stay healthy and get the job done while he leads the Toronto Marlies on a Cup run of their own. 

Now to the aforementioned rookie sensation who came into the league for a playoff run and ended up leading his team to a Stanley Cup in his first attempt is none other than Matt Murray. The former Penguin did so well running a tandem with Marc-Andre Fleury in the 2016 playoffs, that the Pens rode the goaltending duo to a cup again the following season. The Pens became the first team to go back-to-back since the Red Wings in 1997 & 1998. After back-to-back cups (Where Murray was the goaltender chosen to close out the final game each year) Flower was plucked away by the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft and Murray became "The Guy" in Pittsburgh. As Murray was asked to shoulder more of the load as a starting goaltender for the Penguins, a run in with concussions and other ailments began to accumulate having Matt miss 27 games due to injury in his last 2 season before being traded to the rebuilding Ottawa Senators. Matt's time in Ottawa was an absolute mess, 2 years in our nations capital had Murray miss 54 games (3-8 of those games were from COVID-19/Illness). Murray's fall from grace was fast and hard; He went from coming into the league and accomplishing a feat most players never experience by becoming a 2 time Stanley Cup champion while considered a rookie through both seasons, to becoming a non option on a team that tried to come out of his rebuild a bit too soon. 

The Murray Era in Toronto had the fanbase angry & anxious. After GM Kyle Dubas let fan favourite goaltender Jack Campbell walk in free agency to the Oilers for a 5 year by 5 million contract (a blessing in disguise), the fan base was puzzled on what plans he had to fill the massive hole in our crease? Dubas brought in his favourite thing; a former SOO Greyhound. Leafs Nation was up in arms when we acquired an injury plagued goalie for only $312,500 less then it would have cost to keep our beloved Soupy. Dubas took a gamble on a slightly cheaper 28 year old goalie with an injury history & 2 cup rings for the next two seasons, opposed to a 31 year old goalie with an injury history & no playoff success for five seasons. When you read it like that (and witness how this year has played out for Soup) it's hard to argue that this wasn't the best decision for the Leafs going forward. A small insight into this choice that may be over looked is that Murray's contract is set to expire the same day a potential Auston Matthews extension is set to kick in, Dubas' planning ahead has allowed him to have a potential 4.6 million dollars coming off the books at a crucial moment for the franchise instead of a 5 million dollar anchor that has become Campbell's contract. Although the injury bug has plagued Murray a bit this year, when healthy and playing he's put up league average numbers with a 2.92 GAA & .903 SV% through 22 games. Murray returned from an ankle injury after the Leafs deadline overhaul on March 4th, and proceeded to struggle against the high volatile offence of the Oilers and then a desperate come back for a Sabres team chasing a wildcard spot. Murray showed some resilience in the Battle of Ontario matchup this weekend where despite allowing 4 goals to his former club, he managed to make 48 saves and had a .923 SV%. Matt's return from the IR has been shakey, but a strong outing and a big 2 points against the Sens is hopefully the step in the right direction he needs to prepare for the playoffs. Although I have Murray starting on the bench for game 1 of the playoffs, having a guy who has not only been a part of a successful tandem situation in the playoffs but has also been the goalie tasked to shut the door for San Jose and Nashville's cup aspirations shows that the pressure of the playoffs is not something that hinders Murray. The kid who grew up in Thunder Bay Ontario is now with his childhood team and looking to help them exercise their playoffs demons.

At this point in time I don't know how the net couldn't belong to Ilya Samsonov come game 1 (barring injury). The 26 year old RFA goalie was not qualified by the Washington Capitals and went into free agency looking for a new home. The signing of Sammy helped relax the nerves of Leaf Fans knowing we didn't have all our eggs in the Matt Murray basket, but the question of "who will be the Leafs starter come game 1 of the playoffs" began the second Samsonov's signings was announced on July 13th, 2022. Ilya has done more than enough to hold sole claim of the crease as of now, Sammy is in the middle of a career season with a 2.35 GAA & .917 SV% in 35 games. Those stats may not jump out at you, as many would assume the Russian goaltender the Leafs will potentially be matched up against is in the midst of another Vezina calibre year. That is in fact not the case, as of this publishing, Andrei Vasilevskiy is currently sitting with a 2.67 GAA & .914 SV% through his 52 games (Although playoff Vasi is a different beast). The edge come playoff time may come down to home ice advantage in this collision between Atlantic powerhouses. If the Leafs can secure home ice in the post season, Sammy will have an undeniable edge over his fellow countryman. At home this season Samsonov has been lights out, through his 22 home games he holds a record of 18-2-2 and elite stats (1.95 GAA & .929 SV%). Vasilevskiy on the other hand is sitting 13-11-0 on the road with average stats (2.75 GAA & .913 SV%). 

It is hard to find comfort in these numbers as come playoff time the Tampa Bay net minder is seemingly able to flip a switch and become unbeatable, as he as been able to help bring his club to 3 cup finals in a row and secure the cup in 2 of them. Through these 3 seasons Vasi has put up a stat line worthy of an audible gasp (2.09 GAA, .928 SV% & 7 Shutouts). One factor to consider is the potential fatigue that 3 Stanley Cup final appearances may have had on the Lightning and their superstar net minder, Vasilevskiy has played an additional 71 games over this time and the wear and tear of 3 short off seasons and almost an extra regular season worth of games could catch up to the former Conn Smythe trophy winner. Samsonov on the other hand has had little to no playoff experience/success as a member of a Capitals team that is holding off on a proper rebuild while Ovechkin chases Gretzky's goal scoring record. In 8 playoff games Sammy has a 1-6 record with a pedestrian 2.98 GAA & .907 SV%, as said before Samsonov is in  the middle of a career season with the Leafs and hopefully he's able to continue on that track through the post season. Samsonov has been on a tear this week where he went undefeated in regulation before dropping the extra point in a shootout against the reigning cup champions the Colorado Avalanche despite a .966 SV% then posting a .941 SV% for the Toronto St. Pats for a St. Patty's Day victory over the Metropolitan Division leading Hurricanes. Regardless of the results of this post season, the Leafs currently hold Ilya Samsonov's RFA rights, and i'd personally be shocked if the former 22nd overall pick wasn't brought back in the offseason. 

As the runway towards round one becomes shorter and shorter I would be shocked to not see Sammy in the crease for game one (especially at home), But if Samsonov were to falter in any way, shape or form. The buds can possibly experience a return to form for Matt Murray as he steals the crease and takes Leafs  nation on a deep play off run. With all that said, I personally couldn't care less on which of these 4 men get us over the hump. Whether it be Kallgren or Woll making their NHL post season debuts, A Matt Murray comeback story or the original game 1 starter taking us on a playoff run. This will be a franchise deciding year for the Toronto Maple Leafs, hopefully this year Leaf Nation can finally get past that 1st round boogeyman and in the words of Ilya Samsonov finally " Have some Smile" when looking back on a
season. 

The Formula for Success or A Holl-ucination

After a roster shakeup at the deadline and an extended road trip featuring 3 games in 4 nights against most of the western Canadian teams, The Leafs wrapped up the road trip last Tuesday in a clash with fellow eastern conference powerhouse the New Jersey Devils. The buds pulled off a gutsy win against the Devils despite the absence of newly acquired Ryan O’Reilly and Captain John Tavares for the game. A 3-day gap leading up to a Hockey Night in Canada battle against the Oilers provided Tavares enough recovery time to be available. He and fellow star players Marner, Matthews and Nylander preformed a dominant comeback win kicked off in the 2^nd period potting 3 goals in just over 3 minutes. A successful 2 for 2 week keeps the floundering Lightning comfortably behind them in the Atlantic division standings, as Toronto prepares for a heated battle with their divisional rivals the Buffalo Sabres tonight who themselves are in the midst of fighting for a wildcard playoff spot. With a successful 2 games behind us, one player found himself on the ice for a lot of goals for and against. A certain defenceman who wears #3 was on the ice and arguably at fault for 2 goals in the Tuesday contest against Jersey and 1 against the Oilers. In New Jersey Justin Holl failed to clear the loose puck in the slot allowing Erik Haula to swat it past Samsonov before later allowing Ondrej Palat to slip behind him below the circles and cleanly walk in on Sammy. He was on the ice for the 3^rd goal as well, but a deflection in tight doesn’t warrant criticism. During the game against Edmonton he was on the ice for an Ekholm point shot that beat Matt Murray cleanly before getting victimized as many NHLers do by the remarkable foot speed of Connor McDavid and Evander Kane. Although both games possessed negatives, Holl did manage to save his plus/minus and rack up an assist with a beautiful stretch pass to David Kampf that led to the game tying tap in from Michael Bunting against the Devs. Holl went +1 in both of these games which is an impressive recovery after being on the ice for a total of 5 goals against. With the quick recap behind us it’s time to dive into this topic.

With the recent departure of one of the fanbases favourite whipping boys in Pierre Engvall, Leafs Nation is left with one major target. Holl's tenure in Toronto has been quite the roller coaster since his call up in late 2018. From being a prisoner to Mike Babcock’s tyranny, a redemption arc in the Covid shortened North Division and finally a nosedive in his play due to the declining health of Jake Muzzin the following year. Holl began to feel expendable to the fan base leading into this season. A rocky beginning to the year was concerning but his game settled down mid-season following the Leafs back end being decimated by injury (Muzz, Brodie, Mete, Benn, Rielly). Holl has been a controversial player for the Leafs this season, as his spot and security in the lineup over up and coming Swedish defenceman Timothy Liljegren has been a head scratcher. But something about Holl's game has granted him favour in head coach Keefe's eyes, this has him as a reoccurring and trusted member of the Leafs starting 6 defenceman and is a heavily relied upon penalty killer. The Leafs currently have a log jam of NHL calibre players on the back end and barring any injuries it’s a questionable decision to have Holl higher than sixth on the depth chart. Is his roster placement warranted by advanced analytics? Or is eye test enough to question the Leafs management's decision?

So first off, who is Justin Holl? He was originally drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2nd round (54th overall) at the 2010 NHL entry draft. The Tonko Bay, Minnesota native spent 4 years after being drafted at the University of Minnesota putting up a pedestrian 38 points through 4 seasons and at no point taking the step to dominate the NCAA competition. The 2014-15 saw Holl unable to lock down a roster spot for the Rockford IceHogs only playing in a pair of games before heading to the East Coast Hockey League's Indy Fuel. While in the ECHL Justin put up stellar numbers going just above a half point a game as a defenceman, this performance caught the eye of Toronto Marlies Coach (Keefe) and General Manager (Dubas) and he became their reclamation project. The vote of confidence put into Holl certainly paid off, as he was an integral piece of the Marlies growth and eventual capture of the Calder Cup. This undoubtedly earned him a massive amount of favour from his now NHL coach & GM and has allowed him to remain a regular NHL player even through tough stretches with his game. 

Holl's start with the big club was a dream come true, through his first and only 2 games that season Holl scored a goal in each to become the first defenceman in the Maple Leafs’ 100-year history to accomplish that feat. His strong debut was rewarded by then head coach Mike Babcock by essentially making him a professional hockey spectator in the press box and only playing in 11 games that following season. The Holl Hostage situation carried into the next season up until Babcock was relieved of his head coaching duties early in the 2019-20 campaign, allowing Justin to finally become a full time NHLer. Holl spent the remainder of that season and the following one as a steady and competent partner with Jake Muzzin. Through a 3-game stretch against the Oilers in the Covid shortened North Division year, the Muzz-Holl pairing was tasked with playing against the Oilers top line and managed to hold generational phenom Connor McDavid pointless through 3 straight games. This performance had some fans jokily talking about him getting Norris trophy votes for his play since his freedom from the press box. After a major spinal/neck injury to Jake Muzzin in the playoffs series against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Muzz's health was in question and was slowly and subtly on the decline. As the 2020-2021 season began Jake Muzzin's health and ability to support Justin dropped off, which had Leafs Nation questioning if the play of Holl was actually a result of Muzzin being the straw that stirred the drink. Holl's status as an NHL player began to fall more and more into question as the season rolled on and the deficiencies in his game became more and more evident without Muzzin picking up the slack. Holl's 5 games in the playoffs had fans baffled as his play was not up to snuff for a tough matchup against Tampa Bay, many fans felt one of the young Swedes (Sandin & especially Liljegren) were more deserving and better suited in a matchup against the Lightning.

The playoff performance last year thad many members of the fan base (Myself included) questioning Holl's status within the top 6 on the depth chart (Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin, Giordano, Sandin, Liljegren, Holl, Benn & Mete) are all considered competent NHL defenceman. An accidental collision with Coyotes Clayton Keller put an end to Muzz's season (And likely his career) just 4 games into the 2022-23 season. This opened up the depth chart to a point where Holl's inclusion in the top 6 defencemen felt justifiable, but the fan base felt that regardless of the situation that permitted this chance; he was on thin ice. A swap of AHL players; Curtis Douglas for Connor Timmins, brought the Leafs a former top prospect who himself was plagued with the injury bug through the early years of his career. The Maple Leafs back end became even more decimated through injuries with the buds losing Rielly, Brodie, Benn and Mete in late November. With the surprise contributions and steady play of newly acquired Timmins, the growth shown in running the offence by both Sandin & Liljegren, the NHL debut of Mac Hollowell and finally the heavy shut down minutes contributed by Holl & Giordano kept the team afloat. This not only stopped Toronto from hitting a skid and derailing their season, but also allowed the team to go on a heater through this stretch losing only 3 of 15 games. As much as Leafs Nation may want to deny it, Holl has been crucial to where the team currently sits in the standings. At this year’s deadline we saw Dubas overhaul the back end shipping out Rasmus Sandin and bringing in Jake McCabe, Erik Gustafsson and Luke Schenn. The by-product of these moves now mean the log jam in the backend is even greater. On the March 1st game against the Oilers, the Leafs put out one of their worst efforts all season dropping the game 5-2. This game saw the top end talent play without any “purpose or intelligence” in the words of Sheldon Keefe. One performance in that game did stand out though. Holl laid 2 of the bigger hits of his career by levelling Connor McDavid in the corner with a thunderous hit followed up by catching Kailer Yamamoto circling the net with his head down for his 2nd bone crushing hit of the game. Holl then followed the Yamamoto hit by answering the challenge issued by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to drop the gloves. Although Holl didn't fair particularly well during said fight, it felt like Justin Holl was fighting for his chance to not only stay in the top 6 but also with the Maple Leafs past the trade deadline. After watching this irregular game from Holl it left me wondering if he just sprinkled in a massive hit every game or 2, would all his critics overlook his defensive warts and propel him into a fan favourite similar to Ilya Lyubushkin last season. Too much stock shouldn't be put into one game where Holl finally used his 6-foot-3 205 pound frame to ramp up the physicality and intensity in a game where the rest of the lineup wasn't in it, but this does show that come playoff time he is capable of switching to a style of play favourable in the post.  

The eye test for this player shows me a very mediocre NHL player. He doesn't possess any elite aspect in his game. He is what some in the hockey world and the Leafs community refer to as a "big for nothing" player as his large frame is rarely used for big hits, clearing the front of the net and winning 50/50 puck battles. Holl falls into the class of a two-way defender but definitely leans more towards the offensive side of the puck, showing the ability to make strong and smart passes to efficiently exit the defensive zone when he is on his game and is consistently able to chip in close to 20 points every season as a depth defenceman. When he is on his game defensively or sheltered by stronger defender (Muzzin/Giordano) Holl is able to play a very effective shut down roll against some of the league’s top stars. Holl does seem to have trouble consistently finding this aspect of his game, often being one of the first players the camera pans to after a goal against. To the surprise of some Holl was the teams leader in hits before Dubas' playoff roster revamp, meaning although he doesn't throw big hits often, he is not shy of finishing a hit. The eye test draws me to a slight parallel to a former Leaf who had the early parts of his career being mismanaged. While on the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets & Buffalo Sabres, Zack Bogosian was a player being pushed to be a top pairing guy asked to chip in offence, be sound defensively and be a pillar of some below average rosters. The Sabres spent years trying to force a square peg through a round hole before ultimately terminating Bogo's contract mid-season. As a Leaf fan watching Bogosian on the Sabres for 6 years I personally never understood the appeal of Bogo as a top defender in the NHL, and to put it simply he is not a top defender and isn’t capable of bearing the load that comes with it. When deployed in the appropriate role in the correct situation Bogosian’s was invaluable depth for Tampa Bay's initial cup run, his time with the Leafs in the North Division and his return to the cup final with Tampa. Could Justin Holl being used a 7/8th defenceman (6th with injuries) be where he is most useful to the Leafs come playoff time? Coming out of the press box to give the backend a different look after a tough playoff game from someone in the top 6? I think the idea of having Holl on the outside looking in for game 1 of the playoffs may be the spark to light a fire within the player and create an intense internal competition for the Leafs starting lineup come playoff time.

We know that Holl was a Keefe/Dubas reclamation project that worked out at the AHL level, but does analytically driven Dubas see something in the Holl's numbers we don't? The Atlantic Division has the 3 playoff spots held down by the Bruins in the midst of a historic regular season run, the Lightning looking to go to the cup final for a 4th straight year and the Leafs looking to slay their first-round demons. For the sake of simplifying Corsi and Fenwick I have chosen each team’s top defenceman and then their 6th defenceman on the depth chart and am ranking them based on their career analytics. First off ill give an explanation for these 2 advanced stats and then rank the selected players (Rielly, Holl, McAvoy, Forbort, Hedman, Fleury) in their respective order for their careers.

Corsi: (40-60 Average Range in NHL) {Above 55% = Elite} 

The Measure of Shot Attempt differential while at even strength. This includes shots on goal, missed shots on goal and blocked shot attempts towards the opposition’s net minus the same shot attempts directed at your own teams net. A good Corsi score boils down to your team generating more offence than you allow while at even strength 

 

*= This Season

 

1. Charlie McAvoy: Corsi For Career % 54.9 -  {54.8}*

2. Morgan Rielly: Corsi For Career % 52.7  - {55.3}*

3. Victor Hedman: Corsi For Career % 52.4 -  {53.1}*

4. Haydn Fleury: Corsi For Career % 49.0 -  {44.7}*

5. Justin Holl: Corsi For Career % 46.4  - {43.5}*

6. Derek Forbort: Corsi For Career % 43.6  - {39.7}*

 

 

 Fenwick: (40-60 Average Range in NHL) {Over 50% is Good, Under 50% is Bad}

A positive Fenwick number indicates that a team/player spends more time in the offensive zone than the defensive zone.

 

*= This Season

 

1. Charlie McAvoy: Fenwick For Career % 55.8 -  {55.2}*

2. Victor Hedman: Fenwick For Career % 52.4 -  {53.4}*

3. Morgan Rielly: Fenwick For Career % 51.9  - {55.9}* 

4. Haydn Fleury: Fenwick For Career % 48.3 -  {44.1}*

5. Justin Holl: Fenwick For Career % 47.0  - {44.2}*

6. Derek Forbort: Fenwick For Career % 43.7  - {40.9}*

 

Analytically you can see that the worst Corsi & Fenwick doesn't belong to Justin Holl, it is solely possessed by the Bruins 6th defenceman Derek Forbort. The catch is, he belongs to potentially the best NHL team ever. Another flaw with going straight to analytics for roster decisions is that it would have you select McAvoy (who is a phenomenal player in his own right) and potentially Morgan Rielly over perennial Norris trophy candidate Victor Hedman. Morgan Rielly's numbers this year show him in the midst of an "elite" season that is better than both Hedman & McAvoy, this is in fact not the case as many members of the Toronto fanbase and media are commenting on the down year Mo is having.  The Leafs worst player for advanced stats who is a full time NHLer is actually Jake McCabe, but the value beyond analytics have him a crucial member of the top 6 come playoff time. The stats do matter, but sometimes organizations can get lost in the numbers to see what is happening night to night on the ice. 

 

Justin Holl is not some analytics darling who quietly puts up elite advanced stats and is under appreciated by old school hockey fans, and he is not a player who's play on the ice consistently speaks for itself despite the stats like Jake McCabe. Justin Holl is an average NHL calibre depth defenceman plain and simple. He, like every athlete in professional sports is subject to the roller coaster of good and bad games. That being said, he is not some AHL scrub who doesn't deserve to be in the league. Come playoff time I personally do not have Holl in my starting lineup, but he is my first injury replacement/lineup swap for anyone not named Morgan Rielly (Who should be replaced by Gustafsson if needed). Below are my ideal lines and depth chart come playoff time, assuming there are no injuries between now and the 1st Round. 

 

 

Starting D for Game 1

1. McCabe - Brodie

2. Rielly - Schenn

3. Giordano – Liljegren

 

Depth in order of draw into lineup

1: Holl - Gustafsson

2: Benn - 3: Mete

 

For the time being, the lineup card is solely in Keefe's hands. Only time will tell if he values the new additions in the backend enough to push Holl out of the starting lineup. As Leaf fans there is nothing we can do besides support the coach, management & the players the rest of the way in hopes of a deep playoff run and not another long summer Holl-iday.

 

 

 

Thanks to https://www.hockey-reference.com/ for all advanced stats

The Winds of Change

The Winds of Change

 

In Recent years the Toronto Maple Leafs Hockey club has functioned in a manner deemed unfit for playoff hockey. Over these last 2 weeks leading up to the March 3rd trade deadline, Kyle Dubas and his staff have brought the winds of change and blown a few of our beloved Leafs away. There are very few in the media or fanbase who have been able to criticize what a phenomenal job the Leafs management staff has done, it's hard to argue that this team isn't inherently more prepared to lock horns with a stacked Tampa team in the first round. This Leafs roster is well equipped to grind down their opponents in the playoffs and match the depths of several eastern conference juggernauts. As exciting as all these new additions are to a rabid fanbase starved of playoff success, we should reflect on those pieces we had to sacrifice.

 

What we gave away:

 

The Swede Memories of Rasmus Sandin

The start of an absolute whirlwind day saw a young defenceman who a majority of the fanbase loved, be shipped out to the Washington Capitals for Boston's 2023 1st Round Pick and D Erik Gustafsson. The heart-breaking parts of trades like these is seeing someone who was beloved by his teammates have to say goodbye to his hockey family unexpectedly (and goodbye to a team that may actually be a potential contender). Rasmus was a 29th Overall pick who did nothing but grow his game and mature year by year. It feels like yesterday we watched him, and fellow Leafs D man Timothy Liljegren play for Sweden as a pair at the World Juniors. As their skills developed, they continued to rise through the Leafs ranks together until they both found themselves as full time NHLers. Many in this fanbase (Myself included) would have had Tim and Rasmus as a future top 4 pairing for years to come on this team. Sadly, dreams don't often come to fruition as the Sandin era has come to an end in Toronto. Sandin has every tool to be an elite top end defence in the NHL one day. He has the opportunity in Washington, now we just wait and see if he seizes it. Since the trade Sandin has went on to put up 1 goal and 4 assists through 2 games with Capitals while averaging over 21 minutes a night. Sandin is the perfect fit on a Caps team missing an integral part of their back end. When John Carlson Leaves a gaping hole in your D core; Enter Sandman.

 

The Emotional Exhaustion of Pierre Engvall

One of the most infuriating players to have played for this team in recent years was Pierre Engvall. This was a player who was viewed as a potential "5 tool" player after his time with the Marlies. Pierre is a 6'4" Left wing/centre possessing an impressive size and reach often desirable for NHL players. He was one of the fastest skaters on the roster this season and would show flashes of high calibre skills between puck handling and shooting, usually getting a shockingly beautiful goal every month or two. Offences flashes aside Engvall was a consistent penalty killer for the Leafs. So, after hearing about a 6-foot 4 Wing/Centre who is an effective penalty killer with a high top-end speed and flashes of high-end skill to match sounds like the kind of player Tampa Bay finds every year, so what was the problem? For someone with all these attributes he never put it together for more than a 2-3 game stretch. This led to him becoming expendable come playoff time as he hasn't shown the ability to consistently chip in depth scoring or use his impressive mix of size and skill to be a relentless forechecker. Within an hour of fellow Swede Rasmus Sandin leaving the ice, Pierre was informed he was the next casualty of the roster overhaul in preparation for playoffs. He was traded to the New York Islanders for 2024 3rd round pick. Many fans felt this move would be addition by subtraction. I don't think many fans will miss the uneventful shifts Engvall often took for the Leafs, but as a fan base we should always be worried about letting a player like this go. He starts his career in Long Island on the top line along with fellow recently acquired Islander Bo Horvat. This is undoubtedly the best opportunity Engvall has had in his career, maybe an extended look as a top 6 guy will have him finally piece it all together and become a consistent contributor at the NHL level. In his debut game for the Isles he went pointless and even for plus/minus through 17 minutes of ice time followed by a minus 2 performance against Buffalo. It is a long shot that the trading of Pierre Engvall comes back to haunt the Leafs, but letting a player with so many tools go has come back to bite this franchise before. 

 

The Fringe Guys 

Going into the trade deadline, if I had told you that Dryden Hunt and Joey Anderson would both be moved in trades that would heavily impact the Leafs playoff chances this year and for the foreseeable future; you'd have thought I was crazy. You were half right; The Dryden Hunt trade definitely didn't move the needle. Hunt came to the Maple Leafs earlier this year as a branch of the Mason Marchment trade tree (Denis Malgin from Toronto to Colorado for Hunt). Dryden bounced around the NHL quite a bit this year through waivers. He started his year on the Rangers before being claimed off waivers by the Avalanche then traded to the Leafs. Hunts sample size in Toronto at the NHL level was small, he played 9 games with the big club chipping in 1 goal with 9 PIMs. It was on deadline day Dubas made his only trade of that day sending Dryden to the Calgary Flames for Radim Zohorna. This trade is much more of an AHL transaction as Hunt fell casualty to the American Hockey Leagues 5 Veteran limit rule. Only time will tell if this trade is worth mentioning in the future or if we  finally have won the Marchment trade. Now that we've done the house keeping on the minor of the fringe players moved let's talk about Joey Anderson. Joey found his way to Toronto in the Andreas Johnsson trade in 2020. Anderson was always a serviceable call up when needed. He provided an energy and forechecking ability serviceable for the NHL but was never given an extended look with Toronto due to a surplus of NHL calibre depth forwards. As the Buds continued to alter their identity for the playoffs, Joey was shipped off to the Chicago Blackhawks along with picks and a prospect, to bring a solid top 4 defender in Jake McCabe and bottom 6 forward who also plays with a certain amount of intensity and speed with Sam Lafferty. With an absolutely decimated roster after they sold everything that wasn't nailed down, Joey Anderson is in a prime position to get an extended look at the NHL level with the Hawks. Through his first 5 games in the windy city Anderson has put up no points and is a minus 2, this is not the ideal start to Anderson's extended NHL look, but with the Hawks actively tanking in hopes of getting a franchise changing player in Connor Bedard, Andersons slump off the bat is more favourable for Chicago. 

 

The Mystery boxes

When I say mystery boxes, I am referring to any picks or prospects who haven't gotten an extended look at the NHL level. These are the things Dubas used the most this year to bolster his team’s chances; This deadline the Leafs moved out our 2023 1st & 3rd, 2024 2nd, 2025 1st & 4th and 2026 2nd as well as an additional 3rd that was acquired for Engvall. All together the Leafs dealt 7 draft picks over the next 4 years. Draft pics are essentially magic beans in the NHL as there is no guarantee that any one of those draft choices ever play a single NHL game, while there is equal risk that some/all of those pics turn into valuable players a future Leafs roster could desperately need in a few years. Until these picks are turned into serviceable NHLers, I feel there is no need for the unnecessary fear within the fanbase at this time as the dread of round 1 should be the next item on our list of worries. As for the slightly further along pieces the Leafs shipped out 3 prospects; Pavel Gogolev, Mikhail Abramov and Adam Gaudette in order of low too high for potential. Gogolev went to Chicago in the Joey Anderson trade, in all honesty you could have told me this was a randomly generated player in an NHL game, and you would have had me hook, line and sinker. This was a player not known by a majority of the fan base as he struggled to stay at the AHL level and has had a majority of his success in the ECHL, putting up 21 goals and 27 Assists in 33 games with the Newfoundland Growlers this season. The odds of this player taking massive steps and making an impact in the NHL are low, so this is the lowest risk of the 3 prospects shipped out by far. Abramov is probably a name you've heard and wondered about in the Leafs system, at the Age of 21 he is the youngest of the 3 prospects traded away and may still have the highest ceiling based on his age. While putting up over a point a game in all but one season between CSKA development teams and Victoriaville Tigers of the QMJHL Mikhail certainly seemed ready to contribute at the pro level.  After such an impressive lead, up to the AHL he finds himself under his projected stats at about a half a point a game player through his 1st season and a half. Maybe a change of scenery and a new opportunity is what’s needed to put Abramov back on his original career trajectory. Calling a 26-year-old with 7 years (where he played 5 or more NHL games) a prospect is generous I suppose. Adam Gaudette broke into the NHL in 2017-18 with the Vancouver Canucks, he spent 4 years on the west coast before making a 2 year stop in Chicago prior to his final NHL season with Ottawa in 2021-22. Gaudette has 70 points in 216 NHL games and was definitely one of the Marlies who was "Next up" when it came to guys coming to the NHL. Abramov and Gaudette were traded to the Blues for former Selke and Conn Smyth winner Ryan O'Reilly and relentless forechecker Noel Accari.

 

What we brought in:

 

The Big Fish

Ryan O'Reilly to Toronto is referred to as the biggest deadline acquisition for the Leafs since they acquired star defenceman Brian Leetch 2004. Toronto has made a habit of bringing in other teams’ captains as they leave their primes and approach unrestricted free agency in recent years (Nick Foligno 2021 & Mark Giordano 2022). Trading for O'Reilly is not the Leafs bringing in a big-name player in who is a shell of him former self. O'Reilly was a major piece of the engine that won the Blues the Stanley Cup in 2019. As St. Louis decided it was time to sell off assets and start a re-tool, Kyle Dubas jumped at the chance to bring in the Blues captain. This is a top end 200-foot player, Ryan possesses an elite defensive stick and a large frame that makes him a nightmare for attacking players 5 0n 5 in the Leafs End. He blocks the open ice with his positioning and stick work when in the defensive zone along with a strong frame and large body to battle with on the boards for loose pucks. O'Reilly can be that player who not only puts up points for the Leafs, but actively prevents the other team from scoring at even strength. Along with all the skills he brings on the ice, he brings experience, intensity, accountability and a winning pedigree to a playoffs success starved roster. If O'Reilly's work ethic is able to rub off on and inspire members of the team to show up in big game moments (Presumably game 7 of round 1 against the Lightning) this trade will be looked back on as Dubas' crown jewel acquisition that got the Leafs over a hump and hopefully on a deep cup run. The Leafs were privileged to a small sample size of Ryan O'Reilly where he put up 3 goals and 2 assists through 8 games with the Leafs before a stray Auston Matthews shot caught him in the hand and put him on LTIR with a broken finger. O'Reilly is expected to be back in time for round 1, but we will have to wait and see how Ryan comes back and the impact he will have in the opening round.

 

The Sand Paper

One thing Dubas worked hard to change about the Leafs this deadline was making them a harder team to play against. Obviously matching Toronto's top end skill is hard for any team, but it was always the depth that seems to be the issue that's hindered this team’s playoff success. The Leafs often deployed a 3rd/4th line that didn't contribute much offence come playoff time, now depth scoring is always a bonus it is not the only way for your bottom 6 to be effective. Leaf fans have witnessed depth players in previous playoff matchups finish checks and put our stars off their game. Not only is this a good way to frustrate the oppositions best players and try and throw them off so you can steal a game, but by utilizing a relentless forecheck and finishing hits they'll wear the players down through a 7-game series. The Leafs brought in a 3 headed monster in Noel Accari, Sam Lafferty and Jake McCabe. Before the acquisition of these 3 players the Leafs hit leaders where 13th forward Zack Aston-Reese with 125, Justin Holl with 123 and Captain John Tavares with 94. The lowest hits for these newly acquired players is the 1st of the former 2 Blackhawks Sam Lafferty with 96 hits; this depth forward can play both centre and wing and is a very effective penalty killer (he is currently tied for 1st in the league for short-handed goals with 4). This is not a flashy piece that Toronto acquired but it’s the type of player who can turn the momentum of a game in the playoffs. Since joining the Leafs Laff has 1 assist in his first 4 games and has provided a new look and intensity to the bottom 6, the lines are beginning to gel for the playoffs. The 2nd former Blackhawk is also 2nd of these 3 acquisitions for hits, Jake McCabe is a tough and reliable defender who has managed to put up some respectable defensive numbers despite being on the Jack Eichel era Buffalo Sabres where now teammate Ryan O'Reilly "Lost his love for playing hockey" and then a Chicago Blackhawks team who went from on the decline to full on rebuild. This year will be the first time McCabe touches the ice in the NHL playoffs and the soon to be post season debutant is looking to add to his 125 hits and grind down the opposition for the Buds. Since joining the Leafs McCabe has not been on the ice for an even strength goal against through his first 4 games. The biggest benefit of bringing these two particular players in is that they both have term beyond this season. Laff has another year after this while Caber will be around for another 2. Acquiring these 2 players don't only make the Leafs better now, they're set up to grow with these two for the foreseeable future. The sleeper part of the O'Reilly trade is definitely Noel Accari, this player spent 2 years with the Boston Bruins beating the Leafs in back to back years in the first round. He is the type of player who wears you down over time, with 197 hits this season the cookie monster never passes the opportunity to finish his checks. Since joining the Buds, he is slowly becoming a fan favourite as he is absolutely relentless on forechecking and hitting. This injection of energy is certainly changing the identity the Leafs depth and Noel has fit perfectly since arriving in Toronto. Like Ryan O'Reilly, Accari will be an UFA come seasons end, but hopefully the Leafs can retain one or both of these former Blues and Dubas should make it a priority if the price tag is appropriate. 

 

The Prodigal Son returns 

It feels like yesterday that the Toronto Maple Leafs GM Cliff Fletcher traded away the teams 7th overall pick plus a conditional package of 2 more picks for the New York Islanders 5th overall selection. The Leafs used this pick to bring in Saskatoon native Luke Schenn. This pick was referred to as a franchise changing player and the fanbase was ecstatic to bring in our presumed future. But Luke fell victim to the pre Shanaplan Leafs, Schenn was an asset that was heavily mismanaged in Toronto. After his selection the Leafs were firmly committed to a rebuild at the time but chose to rush the 18-year-old into the lineup that following year opposed to letting him head back to junior and dominate the western hockey league. Schenn played four seasons in Toronto where he had his development inadvertently sabotaged. Aside from the Leafs choosing to have their new corner stone piece be a part of all the losing the late 2000's Leafs did, they also advised him to continue to put on weight and get stronger in order to try and create the modern Scott Stevens. It was around this time where the game began to evolve into a high-speed affair, the league began to covet small, fast and highly skilled players opposed to the larger tougher players of the past. This decision made an already not very fleet of foot player even slower, becoming the downfall of Luke Schenn in Toronto. The summer of 2012 saw the Leafs flip Schenn to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for fellow struggling prospect James Van Riemsdyk. This trade was seen as a hockey trade giving two struggling players a fresh situation. Leafs fans can look back on that trade with fond memories as all signs point to Toronto winning this trade. JVR spent 6 years in the Leafs top 6 posting a very impressive Leafs career with 154 goals and 140 assists in 413 games before returning to the Flyers. Schenn on the other hand didn't flourish with his new team as much as he'd have hoped, His time in Philly was only 3 and a half years where he put up 43 points in 213 games. Following his departure from the city of brotherly love Schenn became an NHL depth defence journeyman. Luke spent the next 4 years on 4 teams (LA, Arizona, Anaheim and Vancouver) before he got his first demotion to the AHL. It seemed the former top 5 pick's career was on the verge of fizzling out after 12 seasons in the league. In the 2019-20 campaign Schenn split time in the AHL & NHL between Syracuse and Tampa Bay, this was the spark that reignited Luke's career.  While in a depth role with the Lightning Schenn spent 2 seasons down south capturing back to back Stanley cups. As Tampa continued to win they had to slowly ship out more pieces from those championship rosters in order to keep their core together as much as possible, Schenn got the opportunity to return to the Vancouver Canucks and continue his career resurgence from 2021-23 before the team that drafted him 15 years earlier traded a 3rd round selection in 2023 to bring him home. Schenn not only brings back a certain nostalgia of the player we drafted but brings more of the "Hard to play against" energy. With all the emphasis for the sandpaper guys coming in and basically taking over the top 5 for the teams hit leaders, Schenn brings an NHL leading 265 hits this season. It's unfair to expect Luke to come in and fulfil any of the "prophecies" from that day on the draft floor, but Schenn returning home to help the Maple Leafs slay their demons in the 1st round will be the ultimate redemption arc for the human eraser. 

 

 

 

The offence from the backend

Many members of the Leaf fan base were less than enthusiastic about bringing in offensive defenceman Erik Gustafsson. It wasn't the player at all that was the problem, Gus' 38 points this year had him join the team and instantly become Toronto's highest scoring defenceman. So why the resistance from the fan base? The answer is simple, it was the price. Many fans were underwhelmed that Gustafsson and the Bruins 2023 1st Rounder were all they got for fan favourite Rasmus Sandin. Many sat at home with bated breath waiting for Dubas to package the newly acquired assets for another blockbuster, but that trade never came. This is a player the fans would be very intrigued by if it were the return of the Pierre Engvall trade or was the return in a Justin Holl swap. So, what is this asset the Leafs now have? Simply put, it is Morgan Rielly insurance. Morgan has been a consistent contributor since joining the Leafs full time in 2013-14, he's never put up less than 27 points in a year while eclipsing 50 points 3 times. Statistically this is an on-par year for Mo, but the concern is about his defensive play. Rielly suffered an injury after an inadvertent collision in a game against the Islanders earlier this year. While Morgan was out the team's collection of depth defenceman not only stepped in to stop the bleeding but played a very effective defensive system allowing the Leafs to go 12-2-1 in his absence. Since his return Morgan has looked out of place more often than not. He's been okay on the stat sheet, but his play and decision making aren't up to the normal standard Mo usually provides. This is where Gustafsson comes into play, if you are looking for a suitable replacement come playoff time if Rielly gets hurt or his struggles continue to worsen. Gus is in the midst of a great statistical season and is a player who hit the 60-point mark 7 years ago on a still relevant Chicago squad before being bounced between a few struggling clubs. Gustafsson had undoubtedly the worst debut of all the new Leafs, while quarterbacking the second power play unit a puck heading up the boards jumped his stick and put Blake Coleman in behind him on a short-handed breakaway for a goal. The Gustafsson era in Toronto is up for debate already, but if he can become a catalyst to spark one of the power play units come playoff time, he will quickly become a fan favourite.

 

The spare change

These pieces are picks or prospects likely too far away from helping Toronto in the immediate future. The quick rundown on the picks acquired (Excluding the one flipped for Luke Schenn) were the Bruins 2023 1st Round pick, and Chicago's 2024 & 2025 5th round picks. The Leafs also brought back 2 prospects; Josh Pillar and Radim Zohorna. Pillar is a 21-year-old right wing currently playing for the Saskatoon Blades in the WHL. Pillar appears to be just shy of a point a game player in his previous years in the W so only time will tell how he fairs when he makes the jump to the pro level. The final piece to the Leafs deadline is Radim Zohorna. Radim made his North American pro debut with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2020-21. While relatively unknown Zohorna has 4 goals and 6 assists through 33 NHL games over 3 seasons. At the AHL level Radim is over a half a point per game clip (25 goals 36 assists in 92 games) Who knows if Zohorna is ever an option for the Leafs in the future, but he's an adequate replacement for the losses of Anderson, Abramov and Gaudette this deadline. 

 

The Leafs record since the first trade domino fell is 6-3-0 with an impressive performance against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday. At the time of this O'Reilly was recently put onto IR (Approximately a 4 week return timeline), Schenn remains in Vancouver awaiting the birth of his 3rd child and John Tavares is not feeling 100% following some questionable shots the Canucks took on Saturday and he was held out of Tuesdays game. Leafs Nation anxiously awaits the post season so they can witness what Kyle Dubas' latest iteration of this roster can do against the potential dynasty that is the Tampa Bay Lightning in round 1.